The relevant information this week is as follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: 20231120 Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil have increased slightly, but are still at relatively low levels. At present, there is no other good news except that OPEC+ once again announced that it may reduce production.
Natural gas: Natural gas is currently entering its peak season, and the JKM index continues to rise.
2. Production capacity
With the exception of Gaoqiao and Maoming, all major manufacturing companies across China are operating normally. The average daily output of Gaoqiao and Maoming is around 100 tons (low proportion). In view of the normal production of Jingmen Petrochemical, the loss of this production capacity will not have an impact on paraffin prices; however, some end users need to bear the corresponding logistics costs.
3. Stock
Based on news from multiple information platforms, the total domestic paraffin inventory has risen steadily since the National Day and is currently at the highest level this year.
4. Market demand
After the National Day, terminal demand was mainly weak and stable, major dealers almost did not stock up on goods, and the market transaction prices of most models gradually fell.
5. Industry analysis overview
According to relevant reports, since October, the domestic paraffin wax listed price has remained stable. The average price of the mainstream model 58 semi-refined is 8,796 yuan/ton. Compared with the same period in 2022, the price difference is 913 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.58%; in 2023, the lowest price of paraffin wax appeared at the end of January, with the average price of 58 and a half reaching 6,636 yuan/ton, and the price difference from the highest point of the year was 2,160 yuan/ton, an increase of 33%.
6. price expectations
Based on the above analysis, although production costs are on the rise, demand is currently not strong, and it remains stable in the short term (a few weeks) and bearish in the long term.