The relevant information this week is as
follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil continue to defend the $70 level. It is worth noting that oil prices
rebounded on Thursday and Friday, and correspondingly, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB plummeted 0.89%, closing at 7.1088. Some analysts believe that the continued weakness of the US dollar, the increased possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, and the international The Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its oil demand forecast for 2024. These three factors will improve the current situation of falling oil prices.
Natural gas: Natural gas is currently entering its peak season, and the JKM index continues to rise.
2. Production capacity
Major refineries across the country are operating normally, and Daqing Refining & Chemical will no longer reduce production.
|
Period |
Factory |
Status |
|
20231211—1217 |
Daqing Pec |
Normal |
|
20231211—1217 |
Daqing Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20231211—1217 |
Dalian Pec |
Normal |
|
20231211—1217 |
Fushun Pec |
Normal |
|
20231211—1217 |
Lanzhou Pec |
Normal |
|
20231211—1217 |
Jingmen Pec |
Normal |
|
20231211—1217 |
Gaoqiao Pec |
Normal |
|
20231211—1217 |
Maoming Pec |
Normal |
|
20231211—1217 |
Jinan Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20231211—1217 |
Nanyang Pec |
Normal |
|
20231211—1217 |
Panjing Beiran |
Normal |
3. Stock
With the implementation of the “Insured sales” strategy, the market responded positively and merchants began to restock. The total domestic paraffin inventory has begun to fall, but overall it is still at a high level this year.
4. Market demand
Stimulated by “Insured sales”, market demand rebounded significantly. However, it is currently only a
replenishment behavior and is not a bullish expectation. Focus on urgent needs and stock up carefully.
5. Industry analysis overview
Except for a few market quotations that are slightly lower than the listing price, most domestic markets use the listing price with a “refund of the difference” condition as the benchmark for transactions.
“Insured sales”: The manufacturer will give A-level dealers cash rebates based on the listed price. The amount of the cash rebate will be determined later based on the actual market performance.
6. Price expectations
Based on the above analysis, the “listed price drop + Insured sales” has a significant stimulating effect on the market. Although a balance between supply and sales has been achieved, the market still lacks confidence under the conditions of low oil prices and large inventories. Next week, PetroChina will announce the refund amount, and Sinopec is likely to follow suit. It is estimated to be 200+.