The relevant information this week is as
follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: WTI crude oil initially won
the battle to defend $70 and has closed at 73.56 this week. Basic analysis believes that it is the weakening of the U.S. dollar and OPEC+’s continued production cuts. Although Angola announced that it will withdraw from OPEC
(28.8 million barrels per day), its current production of 1 million barrels per day is close to its maximum production capacity, and its short-term impact is far less than the support effect of US inflation data and attacks in the Red Sea region on oil prices. However, it is worth noting that the United States has now reached a record daily output of 13.3 million barrels, becoming the world’s largest oil producer, and its role in limiting oil prices is self-evident. Multiple analysis organizations believe that maintaining 70 US dollars is the basic result of the current multi-party game. The WTI oil price in 2024 is estimated to be 70 to 95 US dollars.
Natural gas: Natural gas is currently entering its peak season, and the JKM index continues to rise.
2. Production capacity
Among the country’s major production and refineries, Maoming has suspended production, while the rest are operating normally.
|
Period |
Factory |
Status |
|
20231218—1224 |
Daqing Pec |
Normal |
|
20231218—1224 |
Daqing Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20231218—1224 |
Dalian Pec |
Normal |
|
20231218—1224 |
Fushun Pec |
Normal |
|
20231218—1224 |
Lanzhou Pec |
Normal |
|
20231218—1224 |
Jingmen Pec |
Normal |
|
20231218—1224 |
Gaoqiao Pec |
Normal |
|
20231218—1224 |
Maoming Pec |
Suspended |
|
20231218—1224 |
Jinan Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20231218—1224 |
Nanyang Pec |
Normal |
|
20231218—1224 |
Panjing Beiran |
Normal |
3. Stock
With production this week, the total domestic paraffin inventory has gradually increased, reaching a new high this
year, about 30,000 tons.
4. Market demand
After the sales stimulus in the middle and early part of this month, demand fell back this week and inventory
increased slightly.
5. Industry analysis overview
As the month came to an end, PetroChina took the lead in announcing that its rebate amount was ￥100 to 150/Ton, and the corresponding listing price also fell. Sinopec will announce it at the end of the month and is likely to follow suit.
“Insured sales”: The manufacturer will give A-level dealers cash rebates based on the listed price. The amount of the cash rebate will be determined later based on the actual market performance.
6. Price expectations
Based on the above analysis, PetroChina has only given a maximum cash rebate of ￥150/ton this time; Sinopec will announce the rebate amount at the end of the month and is likely to follow suit. It is not yet known whether it will still adopt “Insured sales” next month, but under the conditions of low oil prices and increased inventories, 150 yuan is insufficient, and there is still room for decline.