The relevant information this week is as
follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: After winning the battle to defend US$70 last week, WTI crude oil once exceeded US$75 this week. However, with the partial recovery of the Red Sea route, oil prices closed at US$71.35 on Friday; at the same time, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures in February 2024 was only US$71.33 per barrel. It can be seen that the market’s expectations for crude oil are still hovering at 70 US dollars, and the main focus is to stop falls.
Natural gas: Natural gas is currently entering its peak season, and the JKM index continues to rise.
2. Production capacity
Among the country’s major production and refineries, Maoming has suspended production, while the rest are operating normally.
|
Period |
Factory |
Status |
|
20231225—1231 |
Daqing Pec |
Normal |
|
20231225—1231 |
Daqing Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20231225—1231 |
Dalian Pec |
Normal |
|
20231225—1231 |
Fushun Pec |
Normal |
|
20231225—1231 |
Lanzhou Pec |
Normal |
|
20231225—1231 |
Jingmen Pec |
Normal |
|
20231225—1231 |
Gaoqiao Pec |
Normal |
|
20231225—1231 |
Maoming Pec |
Suspended |
|
20231225—1231 |
Jinan Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20231225—1231 |
Nanyang Pec |
Normal |
|
20231225—1231 |
Panjing Beiran |
Normal |
3. Stock
With production this week, the total domestic paraffin inventory has gradually increased, reaching a new high this
year, about 30,000 tons.
4. Market demand
After the sales stimulus in the middle and early part of this month, demand fell back this week and inventory
increased slightly.
5. Industry analysis overview
As the month comes to an end, the overall price of paraffin wax has dropped by about 150 yuan, which is far from expected. Judging from the actual transaction situation, the transaction prices of A-level dealers in most
markets are not higher than the manufacturer’s listed price in order to complete their monthly sales tasks.
6. Price expectations
The price reduction of 150 yuan is not enough. In order to complete the sales tasks, all A-level dealers have to sell below the listed price. The downward pressure on paraffin prices is huge. Whether “Insured sales” will be adopted
next month is expected to be announced next week.
“Insured sales”: The manufacturer will give A-level dealers cash rebates based on the listed price. The amount of the cash rebate will be determined later based on the actual market performance.