The relevant information this week is as
follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: WTI crude oil continues to struggle around $70 this week. On Tuesday, the U.S. Energy Information
Administration EIA released a forecast that global oil demand is expected to grow by 1.2 million barrels per day in 2025, while this year’s forecast growth is 1.4 million barrels per day. This data is basically consistent with the
average annual growth of 1.2% in global liquid fuel consumption over the past 20 years. This also means that to maintain market stability, OPEC+ may need to extend the implementation of some production cuts beyond expectations, possibly even into next year, to avoid a collapse in oil prices.
Natural gas: Natural gas is currently entering its peak season, and the JKM index continues to rise.
2. Production capacity
Among the country’s major production and refineries, Maoming has suspended production, the rest are operating normally.
|
Period |
Factory |
Status |
|
20240108—0114 |
Daqing Pec |
Normal |
|
20240108—0114 |
Daqing Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20240108—0114 |
Dalian Pec |
Normal |
|
20240108—0114 |
Fushun Pec |
Normal |
|
20240108—0114 |
Lanzhou Pec |
Normal |
|
20240108—0114 |
Jingmen Pec |
Normal |
|
20240108—0114 |
Gaoqiao Pec |
Normal |
|
20240108—0114 |
Maoming Pec |
Suspended |
|
20240108—0114 |
Jinan Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20240108—0114 |
Nanyang Pec |
Normal |
|
20240108—0114 |
Panjing Beiran |
Normal |
3. Stock
The total domestic paraffin inventory has declined. This week, the inventory dropped by about 5,000 tons, with the
remaining inventory of 25,000 tons.
4. Market demand
Due to the stimulation of price cuts andconcerns about logistics inconvenience before the Spring Festival, a large number of downstream manufacturers began to purchase on demand this month.
5. Industry analysis overview
The paraffin market this week has basically continued the market last week, and merchants are actively purchasing goods as needed to prevent logistics problems from affecting production during the Spring Festival.
6. Price expectations
Market trading has been positive this week and prices are not expected to adjust again this month. There is still a possibility of price cuts next month to gradually return to a reasonable level.