The relevant information this week is as follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: WTI crude oil performance has declined this week. The average price returned to US$75 in the last cycle, and the average price in this cycle is US$76. However, it started to gradually decline from US$77.82 on Tuesday, and closed at US$72.28 on Friday. Major OPEC+ members held a regular online market review on Thursday and did not change their strategy for the current quarter. The alliance plans to decide in early March whether to extend the measure into the second quarter, while Saudi Arabia said continued production cuts were “absolutely” possible. It can be seen that downward pressure on crude oil prices still exists, and oil prices will not rise significantly until the world economy shows an obvious upward signal.
Natural gas: Natural gas is currently entering its peak season, and the JKM index remains high.
2. Production capacity
Among the country’s major production and refineries, Maoming has suspended production, the rest are operating normally.
|
Period |
Factory |
Status |
|
20240129—0204 |
Daqing Pec |
Normal |
|
20240129—0204 |
Daqing Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20240129—0204 |
Dalian Pec |
Normal |
|
20240129—0204 |
Fushun Pec |
Normal |
|
20240129—0204 |
Lanzhou Pec |
Normal |
|
20240129—0204 |
Jingmen Pec |
Normal |
|
20240129—0204 |
Gaoqiao Pec |
Normal |
|
20240129—0204 |
Maoming Pec |
Suspended |
|
20240129—0204 |
Jinan Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20240129—0204 |
Nanyang Pec |
Normal |
|
20240129—0204 |
Panjing Beiran |
Normal |
3. Stock
The total domestic paraffin inventory fell by 3,000 tons, with the remaining inventory of about 17,000 tons.
4. Market demand
Downstream manufacturers have been purchasing goods on demand in the past few weeks, and this situation continued this week. Next week will be the last week before the Spring Festival. Due to severe ice and snow weather and the closure of the logistics industry, transaction volume is expected to drop significantly.
5. Industry analysis overview
On Thursday and Friday this week, PetroChina and Sinopec successively announced reductions in paraffin prices by 300 to 400 yuan. However, due to the logistics situation before the Spring Festival, there is no transaction information and market conditions after the price reduction. The current paraffin price adjustment cycle is monthly, and trading will be booming after the holidays.
6. Price expectations
After this round of price adjustments, the average price of paraffin wax is 7,900 yuan/ton, which is close to the empirical value based on data from previous years, and there is still about 400 yuan left. However, the current inventory is no longer at a high level, so the price trend is temporarily unclear.