The relevant information this week is as follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: The average price of WTI crude oil this cycle is 74US dollars. After falling from 77.82 US dollars to 72.28 US dollars in the last cycle, it rose to 76.84 US dollars this week. The recent influencing factors are mainly production interruptions caused by the situation in the Middle East and the cold snap in the United States. There is currently no substantial solution to the situation in the Middle East, and it will cause the Suez Canal, which carries nearly 12% of global trade volume, to remain unstable. The cold wave in the United States is expected to reduce production throughout February. More importantly, refineries seem to be in no rush to resume production – the U.S.
Energy Information Administration (EIA) said that U.S. gasoline inventories and refined oil inventories have decreased much more than expected.
Natural gas: Natural gas is currently entering its peak season, and the JKM index remains high.
2. Production capacity
Among the country’s major production and refineries, Maoming has suspended production, the rest are operating normally.
|
Period |
Factory |
Status |
|
20240205—0211 |
Daqing Pec |
Normal |
|
20240205—0211 |
Daqing Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20240205—0211 |
Dalian Pec |
Normal |
|
20240205—0211 |
Fushun Pec |
Normal |
|
20240205—0211 |
Lanzhou Pec |
Normal |
|
20240205—0211 |
Jingmen Pec |
Normal |
|
20240205—0211 |
Gaoqiao Pec |
Normal |
|
20240205—0211 |
Maoming Pec |
Suspended |
|
20240205—0211 |
Jinan Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20240205—0211 |
Nanyang Pec |
Normal |
|
20240205—0211 |
Panjing Beiran |
Normal |
3. Stock
The total domestic paraffin inventory is the same as that of last week, with the remaining inventory of about 17,000
tons.
4. Market demand
This week will be the last week before the Spring Festival. Due to the severe ice and snow weather and the closure of the logistics industry, the demand from downstream end users has been greatly reduced. However, the current price is relatively low, and some dealers have begun to stock up.
5. Industry analysis overview
Last Thursday and Friday, PetroChina and Sinopec successively announced a reduction in paraffin prices by 300 to 400 yuan, and some dealers began to stock up. However, some dealers continue to hold a wait-and-see attitude, believing that there is still a 300 yuan reduction to be implemented.
6. Price expectations
At present, the average price of paraffin wax is 7,800 yuan/ton, which is close to the empirical value based on data from previous years, and there is still about 300 yuan left. However, the current inventory is no longer at a high level, and we will analyze it after the news is sorted out after the Spring Festival.