The relevant information this week is as follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: WTI crude oil performed strongly during the Spring Festival and has exceeded US$75 for two consecutive statistical periods. General analysis still believes that the chaos in the Middle East is supporting
oil prices. However, considering that the supply of U.S. crude oil, which has been reduced due to the cold wave in the past month, is gradually recovering and has now reached 13.3 million barrels per day, the increase in oil prices is
limited. From a macro perspective, the main possibility of a U.S. interest rate cut is in the second half of the year. For example, according to the FedWatch tool of CME Group, the market believes that the possibility of an interest rate cut in June is about 66%.
Natural gas: Natural gas is currently entering its peak season, and the JKM index remains high.
2. Production capacity
Among the country’s major production and refineries, Maoming has suspended production, the rest are operating normally.
|
Period |
Factory |
Status |
|
20240216—0222 |
Daqing Pec |
Normal |
|
20240216—0222 |
Daqing Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20240216—0222 |
Dalian Pec |
Normal |
|
20240216—0222 |
Fushun Pec |
Normal |
|
20240216—0222 |
Lanzhou Pec |
Normal |
|
20240216—0222 |
Jingmen Pec |
Normal |
|
20240216—0222 |
Gaoqiao Pec |
Normal |
|
20240216—0222 |
Maoming Pec |
Suspended |
|
20240216—0222 |
Jinan Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20240216—0222 |
Nanyang Pec |
Normal |
|
20240216—0222 |
Panjing Beiran |
Normal |
3. Stock
The total domestic paraffin inventory fell by 1,000 tons, with the remaining inventory of about 16,000 tons.
4. Market demand
After the festival, midstream and downstream merchants are actively restocking, and popular models are in short
supply. The key point is that major dealers have begun to actively stock up.
5. Industry analysis overview
On Tuesday, the second working day after the Spring Festival, PetroChina and Sinopec successively announced increases in paraffin prices by 100 to 250 yuan. It may be that post-holiday trading is expected to be booming,
which has changed the practice of adjusting prices at the beginning of the past few months and adjusted them in advance. In addition, there is news that PetroChina is currently adopting a new policy – “frontier warehousing” (to be confirmed). Major refineries have only one week’s output or even zero inventory, and popular models are in very short supply.
6. Price expectations
After this round of price adjustments, the average price of paraffin wax is 7,900 yuan/ton. Although it is 400 yuan higher than the data model of previous years, due to low inventory and new market strategies, there are currently louder bullish voices. However, the data model is still valid, which means that this year’s paraffin market is likely to be a slow jog, rather than the “roller coaster” like in the past.