The relevant information this week is as follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: During this statistical week, the price of WTI crude oil still steadily exceeded 75 US dollars. Although there was a slight fluctuation, it has been rising overall since January this year. OPEC and its allies will make a decision on production cuts in early March. Based on last year’s analysis, this will be a high probability. Major futures analysis institutions have predicted that oil prices will rise to 80-90 US dollars per barrel under the premise of U.S. interest rate cuts.
Natural gas: Natural gas is currently peak season, and the JKM index remains high.
2. Production capacity
Among the country’s major production and refineries, Maoming has suspended production, the rest are operating normally.
|
Period |
Factory |
Status |
|
20240223—0229 |
Daqing Pec |
Normal |
|
20240223—0229 |
Daqing Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20240223—0229 |
Dalian Pec |
Normal |
|
20240223—0229 |
Fushun Pec |
Normal |
|
20240223—0229 |
Lanzhou Pec |
Normal |
|
20240223—0229 |
Jingmen Pec |
Normal |
|
20240223—0229 |
Gaoqiao Pec |
Normal |
|
20240223—0229 |
Maoming Pec |
Suspended |
|
20240223—0229 |
Jinan Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20240223—0229 |
Nanyang Pec |
Normal |
|
20240223—0229 |
Panjing Beiran |
Normal |
3. Stock
The total domestic paraffin keeps its inventory as that of last week, with the remaining inventory of about 16,000 tons.
4. Market demand
After the festival, midstream and downstream merchants are actively restocking, and popular models are in short
supply. The key point is that major dealers have begun to actively stock up.
5. Industry analysis overview
On Wednesday and Thursday this week, PetroChina and Sinopec announced another increase in paraffin prices by 100 to 200 yuan. Based on past experience, continuous price increases indicate the arrival of a paraffin wax
rising cycle. In the next 1-2 months, the paraffin wax market is likely to remain flat or rise.
6. Price expectations
At present, the inventory is low, and various markets are selling at increased prices, so the possibility of price drops is extremely small.