The relevant information this week is as follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: During this statistical period, WTI crude oil prices continue to fluctuate and increase slowly upward. Analysts at Standard Chartered Bank believe that this is closely related to the market tightening caused by OPEC+’s production cuts. On a monthly basis, Standard Chartered estimates there will be a surplus of 180,000 bpd in April, followed by a shortfall of 1.45 million bpd in May and a shortfall of 1.46 million bpd in June. In addition, Standard Chartered said OPEC+’s latest move all but eliminates the possibility of an oil supply glut in the second quarter, even in a more pessimistic forecast. Therefore, at present, although the upside is unclear, the downside for oil is limited.
Natural gas: Natural gas is currently peak season, and the JKM index remains high.
2. Production capacity
Among the country’s major production and refineries, Maoming has suspended production, the rest are operating normally.
|
Period |
Factory |
Status |
|
20240301—0308 |
Daqing Pec |
Normal |
|
20240301—0308 |
Daqing Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20240301—0308 |
Dalian Pec |
Normal |
|
20240301—0308 |
Fushun Pec |
Normal |
|
20240301—0308 |
Lanzhou Pec |
Normal |
|
20240301—0308 |
Jingmen Pec |
Normal |
|
20240301—0308 |
Gaoqiao Pec |
Normal |
|
20240301—0308 |
Maoming Pec |
Suspended |
|
20240301—0308 |
Jinan Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20240301—0308 |
Nanyang Pec |
Normal |
|
20240301—0308 |
Panjing Beiran |
Normal |
3. Stock
The total domestic paraffin keeps its inventory as that of last week, with the remaining inventory of about 16,000 tons.
4. Market demand
After the festival, midstream and downstream merchants are actively restocking, and popular models are in short
supply.
5. Industry analysis overview
On Tuesday this week, PetroChina and Sinopec announced another increase in paraffin prices by 100 yuan. Combined with the current oil price trend, the paraffin market is likely to remain flat or rise in the next 1-2 months.
6. Price expectations
At present, the inventory is low, and various markets are selling at increased prices, so the possibility of price drops is extremely low.