The relevant information this week is as follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: During this statistical period, WTI crude oil prices continued to fluctuate and slowly increased upward. On the premise that OPEC+ maintains production cuts, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has changed its previous prediction that the global oil market will have a supply surplus in 2024, and now predicts a supply shortage. The IEA said in a report on Thursday that it believes OPEC and its allies will maintain production cuts for the rest of the year to “balance the crude market.” On the other hand, Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley, said: “On the supply side, U.S. shale oil production is slowing down and we are already seeing instability in Brazil and Canada. We expected inventories to increase, but year to date, inventories have been essentially flat. If inventories are flat in the first quarter, summer inventories could be significantly reduced. “
Natural gas: Natural gas is currently peak season, and the JKM index remains high.
2. Production capacity
Among the country’s major production and refineries, Maoming has suspended production, the rest are operating normally.
|
Period |
Factory |
Status |
|
20240309—0317 |
Daqing Pec |
Normal |
|
20240309—0317 |
Daqing Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20240309—0317 |
Dalian Pec |
Normal |
|
20240309—0317 |
Fushun Pec |
Normal |
|
20240309—0317 |
Lanzhou Pec |
Normal |
|
20240309—0317 |
Jingmen Pec |
Normal |
|
20240309—0317 |
Gaoqiao Pec |
Normal |
|
20240309—0317 |
Maoming Pec |
Suspended |
|
20240309—0317 |
Jinan Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20240309—0317 |
Nanyang Pec |
Normal |
|
20240309—0317 |
Panjing Beiran |
Normal |
3. Stock
The total domestic paraffin keeps its inventory as that of last week, with the remaining inventory of about 16,000 tons.
4. Market demand
After the festival, midstream and downstream merchants are actively restocking, and popular models are in short supply.
5. Industry analysis overview
On Tuesday this week, PetroChina and Sinopec announced another increase in paraffin prices by 100 yuan. Combined with the current oil price trend, the paraffin market is likely to remain flat or rise in the next month.
6. Price expectations
At present, the inventory is low, and various markets are selling at increased prices, so the possibility of price drops is extremely low.