The relevant information this week is as follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: During this statistical period, the price of WTI crude oil rose sharply by US$3, reaching US$82. On the one hand, analysts at JPMorgan Chase estimate that 900,000 barrels of Russian refining capacity were shut down after the attack; global oil supply was reduced by about 350,000 barrels per day. On the other hand, Standard Chartered Analytics reiterated its long-standing forecast for Brent oil prices to average $94/barrel in the second
quarter of 2024, as actual demand for crude oil in January is higher than its previous expectations.
Natural gas: Natural gas demand gradually decreased, and the JKM index began to decline.
2. Production capacity
Among the country’s major production and refineries, Maoming has suspended production, the rest are operating normally.
|
Period |
Factory |
Status |
|
20240318—0324 |
Daqing Pec |
Normal |
|
20240318—0324 |
Daqing Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20240318—0324 |
Dalian Pec |
Normal |
|
20240318—0324 |
Fushun Pec |
Normal |
|
20240318—0324 |
Lanzhou Pec |
Normal |
|
20240318—0324 |
Jingmen Pec |
Normal |
|
20240318—0324 |
Gaoqiao Pec |
Normal |
|
20240318—0324 |
Maoming Pec |
Suspended |
|
20240318—0324 |
Jinan Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20240318—0324 |
Nanyang Pec |
Normal |
|
20240318—0324 |
Panjing Beiran |
Normal |
3. Stock
The total domestic paraffin keeps its inventory as that of last week, with the remaining inventory of about 14,000 tons.
4. Market demand
Midstream and downstream merchants are actively restocking, and popular models are in short supply.
5. Industry analysis overview
On Tuesday this week, PetroChina and Sinopec announced an increase in paraffin prices by 100 yuan again. Combined with the current oil price trend, the paraffin market is likely to remain flat or rise in the next month.
6. Price expectations
At present, the inventory is low, and various markets are selling at increased prices, so the possibility of price drops is extremely low.