The relevant information this week is as follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: During this statistical period, the price of WTI crude oil remained at US$82, ending all trading days in the first quarter of 2024 with a surge. OPEC+ representatives said that the past few weeks have fully demonstrated that production cuts are having the desired effect. After OPEC+ announced the extension of voluntary production cuts, the International Energy Agency (IEA), which had predicted oversupply, also predicted that crude oil supply shortages would last throughout 2024. The IEA believes that OPEC+ will continue to limit production for the rest of the year to “bring the crude oil market into balance.”
Natural gas: Natural gas demand gradually decreased, and the JKM index began to decline.
2. Production capacity
Among the country’s major production and refineries, Maoming and Dalian have suspended production, the rest are operating normally.
|
Period |
Factory |
Status |
|
20240325—0331 |
Daqing Pec |
Normal |
|
20240325—0331 |
Daqing Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20240325—0331 |
Dalian Pec |
Suspended |
|
20240325—0331 |
Fushun Pec |
Normal |
|
20240325—0331 |
Lanzhou Pec |
Normal |
|
20240325—0331 |
Jingmen Pec |
Normal |
|
20240325—0331 |
Gaoqiao Pec |
Normal |
|
20240325—0331 |
Maoming Pec |
Suspended |
|
20240325—0331 |
Jinan Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20240325—0331 |
Nanyang Pec |
Normal |
|
20240325—0331 |
Panjing Beiran |
Normal |
3. Stock
The total domestic paraffin keeps its inventory as that of last week, with the remaining inventory of about 15,000 tons.
4. Market demand
Demand from midstream and downstream businesses such as the candle industry has weakened, and market activity has decreased.
5. Industry analysis overview
PetroChina and Sinopec finally stopped rising on Tuesday. As the candle industry enters the off-season, the overall demand for paraffin is decreasing. Many traders no longer increase prices by 300 to 400 on mainstream models, but choose to sell them at low-profit prices. As Dalian suspends production for maintenance, there will be a short-term balance between supply and demand, and the market will be stable for a period of time.
6. Price expectations
The market has calmed down, with prices mainly flat. However, due to the suspension of production in Dalian and the possible peak export season in April, paraffin may remain flat or rise.