The relevant information this week is as
follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: During this statistical cycle, the price of WTI crude oil rose 3 US dollars to $ 85. The main reason is that the intensified tension in the Middle East has caused concerns about widespread conflict, as well as signs of tight supply and demand for global markets. If Iran directly participate in the conflict of the Middle East, it may cause oil prices to rise quickly to $ 95-100/barrel in the short term. However, according to the current market data, once the oil price exceeds $ 90, the emerging market crude oil importer will start to really feel the pressure and the demand will be destroyed. At that time, the three unfavorable factors of Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s idle production capacity, the potential lifting of OPEC+ production measures, and the Fed’s delayed interest rate cut will limit the increase in
oil prices out of control, and even re -bring oil prices into the downward cycle.
Natural gas: Natural gas demand gradually decreased, and the JKM index began to decline.
2. Production capacity
Among the country’s major production and refineries, Maoming and Dalian have suspended production, the rest are operating normally.
|
Period |
Factory |
Status |
|
20240401—0407 |
Daqing Pec |
Normal |
|
20240401—0407 |
Daqing Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20240401—0407 |
Dalian Pec |
Suspended |
|
20240401—0407 |
Fushun Pec |
Normal |
|
20240401—0407 |
Lanzhou Pec |
Normal |
|
20240401—0407 |
Jingmen Pec |
Normal |
|
20240401—0407 |
Gaoqiao Pec |
Normal |
|
20240401—0407 |
Maoming Pec |
Suspended |
|
20240401—0407 |
Jinan Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20240401—0407 |
Nanyang Pec |
Normal |
|
20240401—0407 |
Panjing Beiran |
Normal |
3. Stock
The total domestic paraffin keeps its inventory as that of last week, with the remaining inventory of about 15,000 tons.
4. Market demand
The demand for middle and lower reaches of the candle industry has weakened and the transaction volume is moderate.
5. Industry analysis overview
This Tuesday Petroleum and Sinopec announced the price increase by 50 yuan. Although the paraffin trading market is not as active as in the past few weeks, due to the reduction of 15,000 tons of production caused by Maoming and Dalian, the overall paraffin transaction has no downward pressure, but the profit margin has dropped greatly. At present, in addition to the popular models such as 56-58, other models are mainly low-profit sales.
6. Price expectations
With the rise in oil prices, Dalian’s suspension of production, export impact and other factors, paraffin may be flat or rising.