The relevant information this week is as
follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: After reaching US$85 last week, the price of WTI crude oil continued to rise by US$0.7 during this statistical period. It is clear that chaos in the Middle East – especially Iran’s involvement – could cause significant damage to a region that accounts for one-third of global crude oil production. The escalating geopolitical situation has spurred bullish activity in crude oil-related markets. However, relative to this short-term impact, market demand and supply relationships still dominate, which is expected to be $90 within the year. OPEC+ continues to analyze the market closely to maintain a “healthy and sustainable market balance.”
Natural gas: Natural gas demand gradually decreased, and the JKM index began to decline.
2. Production capacity
Among the country’s major production and refineries, Maoming and Dalian have suspended production and Fushun cuts production due to equipment upgrades，the rest are operating normally.
|
Period |
Factory |
Status |
|
20240408—0414 |
Daqing Pec |
Normal |
|
20240408—0414 |
Daqing Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20240408—0414 |
Dalian Pec |
Suspended |
|
20240408—0414 |
Fushun Pec |
Cut production |
|
20240408—0414 |
Lanzhou Pec |
Normal |
|
20240408—0414 |
Jingmen Pec |
Normal |
|
20240408—0414 |
Gaoqiao Pec |
Normal |
|
20240408—0414 |
Maoming Pec |
Suspended |
|
20240408—0414 |
Jinan Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20240408—0414 |
Nanyang Pec |
Normal |
|
20240408—0414 |
Panjing Beiran |
Normal |
3. Stock
Due to production limitation, the total domestic paraffin less its inventory with the remaining inventory of about 13,000 tons.
4. Market demand
The demand for middle and lower reaches of the candle industry has weakened and the transaction volume is moderate.
5. Industry analysis overview
This Tuesday, PetroChina announced that the price of the fully refined model would increase by 50 yuan, while the rest would remain unchanged. The relevant reasons are not yet known. At present, most market traders adopt low-profit shipping methods to ensure the completion of sales tasks.
6. Price expectations
There is a high probability that Sinopec’s fully refining-related models will rise by 50, while other models will remain unchanged or rise.