The relevant information this week is as follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: During this statistical period, the average price of WTI crude oil fell to 83.15 US dollars. It is generally believed that oil prices are gradually losing the risk premium caused by the slowdown in the Middle East. This value is about 5-10 US dollars according to Goldman Sachs analysis. At the same time, in the face of the strengthening US dollar and the postponement of interest rate cuts, lower oil prices are inevitable. On the other hand, it is now a critical moment for the United States to harvest Asia through the “dollar tide”, and the Japanese yen is most likely to be the first to be defeated. Therefore, before this round of financial confrontation is completed, a strong US dollar will prevent oil prices from rising. Some analysts pointed out that Brent oil prices will not exceed US$90 to benefit
Biden in the US election in November.
Natural gas: The demand for natural gas is gradually decreasing, and the JKM index is running at a low level.
2. Production capacity
Among the country’s major production and refineries, Maoming and Dalian have suspended production and Fushun cuts production due to equipment upgrades，the rest are operating normally.
|
Period |
Factory |
Status |
|
20240422—0428 |
Daqing Pec |
Normal |
|
20240422—0428 |
Daqing Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20240422—0428 |
Dalian Pec |
Suspended |
|
20240422—0428 |
Fushun Pec |
Cut production |
|
20240422—0428 |
Lanzhou Pec |
Normal |
|
20240422—0428 |
Jingmen Pec |
Normal |
|
20240422—0428 |
Gaoqiao Pec |
Normal |
|
20240422—0428 |
Maoming Pec |
Suspended |
|
20240422—0428 |
Jinan Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20240422—0428 |
Nanyang Pec |
Normal |
|
20240422—0428 |
Panjing Beiran |
Normal |
3. Stock
Due to production limitation, the total domestic paraffin less its inventory with the remaining inventory of about 13,000 tons.
4. Market demand
Demand from midstream and downstream merchants such as the candle industry is extremely low, and PetroChina’s
frontline warehouses have a serious backlog of semi-refined and crude paraffin wax models.
5. Industry analysis overview
On Friday, PetroChina had to reduce the listing price of relevant models by 200 yuan due to the serious backlog of crude paraffin and semi-refined models in front warehouses, while the fully refined models remained unchanged. In fact, the next May will be the peak season for exports. Oil prices have been rising in the past quarter. This sharp drop of 200 yuan is really unexpected. At present, crude paraffin and semi-refined models are more likely to go down, while fully refined models are unclear; but once fully refined models also start to cut prices, paraffin wax will most likely enter a downward cycle.
6. Price expectations
The listing prices of Sinopec crude paraffin and semi-refined paraffin models are likely to be reduced by 200, while fully refined paraffin models remain unchanged.