The relevant information this week is as follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: During this statistical period, international crude oil prices remained unchanged from the previous period and remained volatile. This week’s fluctuations in crude oil prices were mainly affected by the Federal Reserve’s policy stance and U.S. economic data. The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting showed that policymakers were cautious about the long-term maintenance of interest rates and inflation control, which led financial markets to significantly reduce expectations for an interest rate cut in 2024. The market is currently paying close attention to the OPEC+ meeting to be held on June 2 to discuss whether to extend the production reduction agreement. It is generally expected that the production reduction measures will be extended to at least the end of September.
Natural gas: The demand for natural gas is gradually decreasing, and the JKM index is running at a low level.
2. Production capacity
Among the country’s major production and refineries, Maoming and Dalian have suspended production，the rest are operating normally.
|
Period |
Factory |
Status |
|
20240520—0526 |
Daqing Pec |
Normal |
|
20240520—0526 |
Daqing Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20240520—0526 |
Dalian Pec |
Suspended |
|
20240520—0526 |
Fushun Pec |
Normal |
|
20240520—0526 |
Lanzhou Pec |
Normal |
|
20240520—0526 |
Jingmen Pec |
Normal |
|
20240520—0526 |
Gaoqiao Pec |
Normal |
|
20240520—0526 |
Maoming Pec |
Suspended |
|
20240520—0526 |
Jinan Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20240520—0526 |
Nanyang Pec |
Normal |
|
20240520—0526 |
Panjing Beiran |
Normal |
3. Stock
At present, the remaining domestic inventory is about 19,000 tons.
4. Market demand
Only downstream companies purchase on demand, and the total transaction volume is low.
5. Industry analysis overview
On Tuesday (May 21), Sinopec officially reduced the listing prices of some models with weak market performance for each of its refineries, by ￥150~200 respectively. Although the official listing price of PetroChina remained
unchanged, the actual transaction price continued to decline. The sluggish paraffin market has forced major refineries to maintain low inventories. The actual inventory of many refineries in the Northeast is less than a week’s
output.
6. Price expectations
Paraffin prices probably undergo overall price reduction adjustments in the next two weeks, and may fall further with oil prices in the long term until the market recovers.