The relevant information this week is as follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: During this statistical period, international crude oil prices remained the same as in the previous period, and remained volatile. OPEC+ will hold a meeting on June 2 to discuss whether to extend the production cut agreement. According to statistics, OPEC+ member countries have pledged to cut production by a total of 5.86 million barrels per day, equivalent to 5.7% of global crude oil demand. This includes the 3.66 million barrels per day
production cuts shared by OPEC+ member countries as agreed, and a series of countries voluntarily cut production by 2.2 million barrels per day. Several representatives said that Saudi Arabia and several member countries are
discussing extending the “voluntary production cuts” to the second half of the year, while extending the organization’s production cut target to 2025. In addition, with the start of the summer driving season in the United States, crude oil demand will increase further. However, the Federal Reserve does not seem to be in a hurry to make a statement on interest rate cuts. Maintaining a high interest rate stance will inhibit economic activity, thereby suppressing oil prices to a certain extent.
Natural gas: The demand for natural gas is gradually decreasing, and the JKM index is running at a low level.
2. Production capacity
Among the major refineries in the country, Maoming has stopped production, Dalian is resuming production, and the rest are operating normally.
|
Period |
Factory |
Status |
|
20240527—0602 |
Daqing Pec |
Normal |
|
20240527—0602 |
Daqing Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20240527—0602 |
Dalian Pec |
Recovering |
|
20240527—0602 |
Fushun Pec |
Normal |
|
20240527—0602 |
Lanzhou Pec |
Normal |
|
20240527—0602 |
Jingmen Pec |
Normal |
|
20240527—0602 |
Gaoqiao Pec |
Normal |
|
20240527—0602 |
Maoming Pec |
Suspended |
|
20240527—0602 |
Jinan Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20240527—0602 |
Nanyang Pec |
Normal |
|
20240527—0602 |
Panjing Beiran |
Normal |
3. Stock
Due to the recent large price reduction, there are many wait-and-see buyers and the domestic remaining inventory has increased to around 24,000 tons.
4. Market demand
Only downstream companies purchase on demand, and the total transaction volume is low.
5. Industry analysis overview
On Tuesday (May 28), Sinopec officially reduced the price of all its paraffin wax models by 150 to 200 yuan. On Friday (May 31), PetroChina even reduced the price of existing models by 600 to 930 yuan. Due to the huge gap between the listing prices of the same type of paraffin wax of Sinopec and PetroChina, it is inevitable that Sinopec will further reduce the listing price
6. Price expectations
Sinopec will further reduce its listing price to keep it in balance with PetroChina’s listing price. In the long run, oil prices are likely to fall due to the postponement of the US dollar interest rate cut, and paraffin prices will fall accordingly.