The relevant information this week is as follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: During this statistical period, international crude oil prices fell by nearly $4, and Brent crude oil fell below $80 for the first time this year. The main reason is that the results of the OPEC+ meeting last
weekend indicated that although the negotiated production cuts remain the same, the voluntary production cuts will be gradually cancelled from October. This policy undoubtedly led most traders to be bearish on international oil prices. In their view, although OPEC+’s production cuts have been extended, they are actually paving the way for increased production. Looking closely at the content of the agreement, OPEC+ will be able to release more supply to the market starting in October, and will increase significantly next year. Most analysts believe that OPEC+ does not have the market conditions to gradually increase supply starting in the fourth quarter of 2024.
After a sharp drop in oil prices on Monday, energy ministers from the most influential OPEC+ oil-producing countries said on Thursday that the oil production plan announced last weekend could be revised or reversed at
any time to ease market concerns about oversupply. UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei pointed out at the same event in Russia: “Sometimes the market does not understand the decision and needs time to analyze it.”
Natural gas: The demand for natural gas is gradually decreasing, and the JKM index is running at a low level.
2. Production capacity
Among the major refineries in the country, Maoming has stopped production, Dalian is resuming production, and the rest are operating normally.
|
Period |
Factory |
Status |
|
20240603—0609 |
Daqing Pec |
Normal |
|
20240603—0609 |
Daqing Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20240603—0609 |
Dalian Pec |
Recovering |
|
20240603—0609 |
Fushun Pec |
Normal |
|
20240603—0609 |
Lanzhou Pec |
Normal |
|
20240603—0609 |
Jingmen Pec |
Normal |
|
20240603—0609 |
Gaoqiao Pec |
Normal |
|
20240603—0609 |
Maoming Pec |
Suspended |
|
20240603—0609 |
Jinan Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20240603—0609 |
Nanyang Pec |
Normal |
|
20240603—0609 |
Panjing Beiran |
Normal |
3. Stock
After the price reduction this week, some terminal buyers took delivery and the remaining domestic inventory was
slightly reduced to around 22,000 tons.
4. Market demand
Only downstream companies purchase on demand, and the total transaction volume is low.
5. Industry analysis overview
On Tuesday (June 4), Sinopec lowered its listing price as expected, with price cuts ranging from 400 to 550 for different models. As it is the traditional off-season, dealers are not very enthusiastic about stocking up, waiting for further price adjustments from PetroChina and Sinopec.
6. Price expectations
At present, there is still a large price difference between some models of Sinopec and PetroChina, which should be adjusted soon. This month, due to the expectation of increased crude oil supply and the unknown US dollar interest rate cut policy, the downward pressure on oil prices is huge, and the price of paraffin is likely to fall accordingly.