20240617~20240623 paraffin market analysis of China

The relevant information this week is as follows:

1. Raw material

Crude oil: During this statistical period, international crude oil prices rose again by nearly $3. Following Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil also exceeded $80 again. According to the crude oil data released by EIA this week, with the arrival of the summer driving season, the demand for crude oil consumption in the United States has increased. Crude oil inventories fell by 2.547 million barrels month-on-month, while refined oil supply increased by 1.862 million barrels/day month-on-month to 21.1 million barrels/day. Obviously, the rise in US oil demand and the decline in fuel inventories have provided support for the crude oil market, while geopolitical tensions have added
uncertainty to the market. At present, if the war premium reappears, Brent oil prices may exceed $90/barrel.

2. Production capacity

Among the major refineries in the country, Maoming has stopped production and the rest are operating normally.

Period	Factory	Status
20240617—0623	Daqing Pec	Normal
20240617—0623	Daqing Ref & Che	Normal
20240617—0623	Dalian Pec	Normal
20240617—0623	Fushun Pec	Normal
20240617—0623	Lanzhou Pec	Normal
20240617—0623	Jingmen Pec	Normal
20240617—0623	Gaoqiao Pec	Normal
20240617—0623	Maoming Pec	Suspended
20240617—0623	Jinan Ref & Che	Normal
20240617—0623	Nanyang Pec	Normal
20240617—0623	Panjing Beiran	Normal

 

3. Stock

Prices remained unchanged this week, as terminal buyers and some dealers began to take delivery, and domestic remaining inventory was reduced to around 16,000 tons.

4. Market demand

Downstream companies are getting goods on demand, and a small number of dealers are also starting to stock up on
goods, resulting in improved transaction volume.

5. Industry analysis overview

The listed price of paraffin wax remained unchanged this week. After more than a month of waiting and watching, in addition to companies purchasing on demand, a small number of dealers began to stock up, especially the model 58 crude , which had active transactions.

6. Price expectations

At present, Sinopec and PetroChina still have some models with large price differences, but they have not adjusted them yet. Among them, the Jingmen Sinopec refinery has obvious cost advantages in the fully refined models. This month, due to the low oil prices and low demand, the price of paraffin is unlikely to rise.