20240624~20240630 paraffin market analysis of China

The relevant information this week is as follows:

1. Raw material

Crude oil: During this statistical period, the upward momentum of international crude oil slowed down, and Brent crude oil rose by nearly $1, exceeding $85. Although there are many negative indicators according to the crude oil data released by EIA this week, the actual oil price has risen instead of falling. Analysts believe that the smell of gunpowder between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon is getting stronger and stronger, which has caused panic in the global market and directly pushed international oil prices to a high level. Although it is limited by the need to stabilize the situation in the US election, if the war premium appears again, Brent oil prices may exceed $90 per barrel.

2. Production capacity

Among the major refineries in the country, Maoming has stopped production and the rest are operating normally.

Period	Factory	Status
20240624—0630	Daqing Pec	Normal
20240624—0630	Daqing Ref & Che	Normal
20240624—0630	Dalian Pec	Normal
20240624—0630	Fushun Pec	Normal
20240624—0630	Lanzhou Pec	Normal
20240624—0630	Jingmen Pec	Normal
20240624—0630	Gaoqiao Pec	Normal
20240624—0630	Maoming Pec	Suspended
20240624—0630	Jinan Ref & Che	Normal
20240624—0630	Nanyang Pec	Normal
20240624—0630	Panjing Beiran	Normal

 

3. Stock

The price remained basically unchanged this week, and PetroChina adjusted the listing price of some models. Terminal buyers and some dealers began to take goods, and the remaining inventory in China was less than 16,000 tons.

4. Market demand

Downstream companies purchase goods on demand and some distributors start to stockpile , the transaction volume is good.

5. Industry analysis overview

This week, PetroChina raised the prices of its popular models, ranging from 20 to 270 yuan. Especially for crude paraffin wax, Daqing, Fushun, Dalian and Lanzhou refineries have all made adjustments.

6. Price expectations

The off-season of June has ended. Based on the current rising international oil prices, the price of paraffin wax in July, the traditional peak season, is expected to rise. The rise in the price of PetroChina on Friday has also demonstrated this, and the corresponding increase in Sinopec will also be carried out in a few weeks.