The relevant information this week is as follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: International crude oil continued to rise during this statistical period, with WTI crude oil rising by nearly $2 to $83, mainly due to the fact that summer demand in the United States was much higher than expected. The American Automobile Association previously predicted that compared with 2023, this year’s Independence Day holiday travel will increase by 5.2%, of which car travel will increase by 4.8%. However, last week, EIA crude oil inventories were expected to decrease by 680,000 barrels, but actually decreased by 12.157 million barrels. In addition, some analysts pointed out that part of the reason was the decrease in trading volume before the Independence Day holiday and concerns about Hurricane Beryl.
2. Production capacity
Among the major refineries in the country, Maoming and Lanzhou has stopped production and the rest are operating normally.
Period | Factory | Status |
20240701—0707 | Daqing Pec | Normal |
20240701—0707 | Daqing Ref & Che | |
20240701—0707 | Dalian Pec | Normal |
20240701—0707 | Fushun Pec | Normal |
20240701—0707 | Lanzhou Pec | Suspended |
20240701—0707 | Jingmen Pec | Normal |
20240701—0707 | Gaoqiao Pec | Normal |
20240701—0707 | Maoming Pec | Suspended |
20240701—0707 | Jinan Ref & Che | Normal |
20240701—0707 | Nanyang Pec | Normal |
20240701—0707 | Panjing Beiran | Normal |
3. Stock
Prices remained basically unchanged this week. PetroChina raised the listing price of products from Daqing and Lanzhou refineries by 30 yuan/ton. Terminal buyers and distributors began to take delivery, and there were about 14,000 tons of remaining inventory in the country.
4. Market demand
Downstream companies purchase goods on demand and most distributors begin to stockpile goods, resulting in good transaction volumes.
5. Industry analysis overview
This Friday, PetroChina increased the price of most models of its Daqing and Lanzhou refineries by 30 yuan/ton again. Currently, only Fushun has not made this round of price adjustment. All models of Sinopec remain unchanged, which has a greater cost advantage than that of PetroChina..
6. Price expectations
PetroChina has raised prices for two consecutive weeks, both on Fridays. It is clear that its adjustment strategy is based on weekly sales. It is currently the traditional peak season, and inventory is decreasing, so price increases are very likely. In particular, Sinopec may directly increase prices by 150-200 yuan/ton to maintain a balanced market structure.