The relevant information this week is as follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: During this statistical period, the international crude oil price fell again by about 0.7 US dollars, a drop of about 1%; Brent crude oil fell below 85 US dollars, with an average price of 84.71 US dollars. Although the EIA’s crude oil data led to a small increase in WIT oil prices, the alarm for falling oil prices in the short term is ringing – this Friday (July 19th), Brent oil prices fell directly from 85 US dollars to 82 US dollars, a drop of nearly 4%. Analysts believe that the main reason for the decline is that the labor market and manufacturing data recently released by the United States are much stronger than expected, causing the US dollar to strengthen suddenly. Secondly, US Secretary of State Blinken hinted at the approach of a ceasefire agreement at the Aspen Security Forum held in Colorado, resulting in a continuous reduction in the war risk premium.
As for the long-term oil price trend, even if the situation in the Middle East is completely restored to peace, the
recovery of the global economy and the growth of oil demand will still support oil prices. In particular, all analysis agencies are optimistic about the Fed’s interest rate cut in September, and are therefore bullish on crude oil.
2. Production capacity
Among the major refineries in the country, Maoming and Lanzhou has stopped production and the rest are operating normally.
|
Period |
Factory |
Status |
|
20240715—0721 |
Daqing Pec |
Normal |
|
20240715—0721 |
Daqing Ref & Che |
|
|
20240715—0721 |
Dalian Pec |
Normal |
|
20240715—0721 |
Fushun Pec |
Normal |
|
20240715—0721 |
Lanzhou Pec |
Suspended |
|
20240715—0721 |
Jingmen Pec |
Normal |
|
20240715—0721 |
Gaoqiao Pec |
Normal |
|
20240715—0721 |
Maoming Pec |
Suspended |
|
20240715—0721 |
Jinan Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20240715—0721 |
Nanyang Pec |
Normal |
|
20240715—0721 |
Panjing Beiran |
Normal |
3. Stock
This week, Sinopec and PetroChina both raised prices for their paraffin wax models to varying degrees. The paraffin
wax market is in a bull market, and all parties are actively purchasing goods. There are about 12,000 tons of remaining inventory in China.
4. Market demand
Downstream enterprises purchased goods on demand and dealers began to stock up. Among them, the high melting point crude paraffin wax models increased significantly due to the candle industry’s stocking in the second half of the year, and the transaction was hot.
5. Industry analysis overview
This week, the price of paraffin wax generally increased by 50~150 yuan/ton. Crude paraffin wax is still in short supply and has the largest increase. Dealers in various places generally increase the price by 100~200 yuan. It is expected that the market will remain hot this month.
6. Price expectations
The current market transactions are booming, and there is still a gap of 500 yuan/ton compared with the same period last year, so it is more likely to continue to rise.