20240722~20240728 paraffin market analysis of China

The relevant information this week is as follows:

1. Raw material

Crude oil: During this statistical period, the international crude oil price plummeted by about US$2.7, and Brent crude oil once fell to US$80. The average price in this period was US$82.02. Although the EIA’s crude oil data this week still shows strong demand in the United States, 1) as the Middle East parties are more willing to cease fire and tensions ease, the war risk premium continues to decrease. 2) As the summer in the United States passes, more and more traders are beginning to worry that the weakness in China’s crude oil demand will increase the risk of oil prices falling. According to data from the General Administration of Customs of China, due to lower fuel demand and reduced refining rates, China’s crude oil imports in June 2024 fell by 11.5% month-on-month, and China’s crude oil arrivals in the first half of the year also fell by 2.3% compared with the same period last year. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that China’s weak consumption is slowing down global oil demand growth.

2. Production capacity

Among the major refineries in the country, Maoming and Lanzhou has stopped production and the rest are operating normally.

Period	Factory	Status
20240722—0728	Daqing Pec	Normal
20240722—0728	Daqing Ref & Che	Normal
20240722—0728	Dalian Pec	Normal
20240722—0728	Fushun Pec	Normal
20240722—0728	Lanzhou Pec	Suspended
20240722—0728	Jingmen Pec	Normal
20240722—0728	Gaoqiao Pec	Normal
20240722—0728	Maoming Pec	Suspended
20240722—0728	Jinan Ref & Che	Normal
20240722—0728	Nanyang Pec	Normal
20240722—0728	Panjing Beiran	Normal

 

3. Stock

This week, PetroChina raised 50yuan/ton for all paraffin wax models, and all parties are actively purchasing goods.
There are about 12,000 tons of remaining inventory in China.

4. Market demand

Downstream enterprises purchased goods on demand and dealers are stocking up in large quantities, the market is
booming.

5. Industry analysis overview

This week, PetroChina raised the listing price by 50 yuan again. Crude paraffin is still in short supply, and dealers generally add 200 yuan to the price. It is expected that the market will remain hot this month.

6. Price expectations

The current market are booming, and there is still a gap of 400 yuan/ton compared with the same period last year, so it is more likely to continue to rise.