20240805~20240811 paraffin market analysis of China

The relevant information this week is as follows:

1. Raw material

Crude oil: During this statistical period, the international crude oil price plummeted again by about 2 US dollars, and Brent crude oil fell to 77.38 US dollars per barrel. The oil price plunge mainly occurred last Friday and this Monday, and it is generally believed that it is still caused by weak future demand. However, starting from Tuesday this week, oil prices rebounded strongly, soaring directly from 76.3 US dollars to 79.75 US dollars. According to various news, the current long-short game is tense, with good and bad news each having its own merits, and Brent crude oil began to fluctuate around 80 US dollars per barrel. In the short term, US economic data, the situation in the Middle East, Libya’s Sharara oil field, OPEC+’s voluntary production cuts, etc. will cause fluctuations in oil prices.

2. Production capacity

Among the major refineries in the country, Maoming and Lanzhou has stopped production and the rest are operating normally.

Period	Factory	Status
20240805—0811	Daqing Pec	Normal
20240805—0811	Daqing Ref & Che	Normal
20240805—0811	Dalian Pec	Normal
20240805—0811	Fushun Pec	Normal
20240805—0811	Lanzhou Pec	Suspended
20240805—0811	Jingmen Pec	Normal
20240805—0811	Gaoqiao Pec	Normal
20240805—0811	Maoming Pec	Suspended
20240805—0811	Jinan Ref & Che	Normal
20240805—0811	Nanyang Pec	Normal
20240805—0811	Panjing Beiran	Normal

 

3. Stock

This week, all types of paraffin wax have been raised in price by 50~150 yuan/ton, and all parties are actively purchasing goods. There are about 13,000 tons of remaining inventory in China.

4. Market demand

Downstream enterprises purchased goods on demand and dealers are stocking up in large quantities, the market is
booming.

5. Industry analysis overview

This week, the listing price of various types of paraffin wax was raised again by 50~150 yuan, and traders generally added 200 yuan to the price. Although the current downward trend of oil prices is obvious, domestic demand is strong and production capacity is weak, so the price of paraffin wax is expected to rise.

6. Price expectations

The current market is booming, and there is still a gap of 200 yuan/ton compared with the same period last year, so it is more likely to continue to rise.