20240812~20240818 paraffin market analysis of China

The relevant information this week is as follows:

1. Raw material

Crude oil: During this statistical period, international crude oil prices rebounded strongly by about $3, with Brent crude oil prices rising to $80.67 per barrel, in line with the previous judgment of “swinging around $80 per barrel”. It is worth noting that concerns about sluggish market demand are still suppressing oil prices, especially this week’s EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) data showing that with the end of the summer driving season, U.S. crude oil demand has also begun to weaken. In response, OPEC and IEA (International Energy Agency) have both lowered their forecasts for oil demand growth, reflecting the downside risks of the global economy.

2. Production capacity

Among the major refineries in the country, Maoming and Lanzhou has stopped production and the
rest are operating normally.

Period	Factory	Status
20240812—0818	Daqing Pec	Normal
20240812—0818	Daqing Ref & Che	Normal
20240812—0818	Dalian Pec	Normal
20240812—0818	Fushun Pec	Normal
20240812—0818	Lanzhou Pec	Suspended
20240812—0818	Jingmen Pec	Normal
20240812—0818	Gaoqiao Pec	Normal
20240812—0818	Maoming Pec	Suspended
20240812—0818	Jinan Ref & Che	Normal
20240812—0818	Nanyang Pec	Normal
20240812—0818	Panjing Beiran	Normal

 

3. Stock

This week, all types of paraffin wax have been raised in price by 50~150 yuan/ton, and all parties are actively purchasing goods. There are about 12,000 tons of remaining inventory in China.

4. Market demand

Downstream enterprises purchased goods on demand and dealers are stocking up in large quantities, the market is booming.

5. Industry analysis overview

This week, the listing price of various types of paraffin wax was raised again by 50 to 150 yuan, and the dealers’ markup was reduced. As the price of Brent crude oil remained at 80 US dollars per barrel, the rise in paraffin wax prices slowed down. However, the inventory of major refineries is low, and the “golden September and silver October” is coming soon, the price of paraffin wax may go sideways for several weeks and then rise slightly.

6. Price expectations

The current price of paraffin is still 100 yuan/ton lower than the same period last year. After continuous upward adjustments, the current upward trend has weakened. It is expected that between September and October, the price of paraffin will “remain stable and may rise slightly.”