20240819~20240825 paraffin market analysis of China

The relevant information this week is as follows:

1. Raw material

Crude oil: During this statistical period, the international crude oil price plummeted by another $3, and the Brent crude oil price fell
again to $77.56 per barrel. Even though the EIA data released on Wednesday was extremely bullish for crude oil, the Brent crude oil price plummeted from $78 to $75 within a few hours, indicating that the current crude oil market is under great downward pressure against the backdrop of weak global demand and the possible cancellation of production cuts by OPEC+.

However, the most critical progress of the Fed’s interest rate cut was that on Friday, Fed Chairman Powell made clear the interest rate cut signal, and Brent crude oil rebounded strongly, closing at $79.02. This impact is very likely to continue to affect the oil price trading next week, and the average price of Brent oil prices next week may return to $80.

2. Production capacity

Among the major refineries in the country, Maoming and Lanzhou has stopped production and the rest are operating normally.

Period	Factory	Status
20240819—0825	Daqing Pec	Normal
20240819—0825	Daqing Ref & Che	Normal
20240819—0825	Dalian Pec	Normal
20240819—0825	Fushun Pec	Normal
20240819—0825	Lanzhou Pec	Suspended
20240819—0825	Jingmen Pec	Normal
20240819—0825	Gaoqiao Pec	Normal
20240819—0825	Maoming Pec	Suspended
20240819—0825	Jinan Ref & Che	Normal
20240819—0825	Nanyang Pec	Normal
20240819—0825	Panjing Beiran	Normal

 

3. Stock

This week, the price of paraffin products of Sinopec increased by 50~100 yuan/ton, that of PetroChina remained basically unchanged, and only the crude paraffin of Daqing Petrochemical increased by 50. All parties were active in purchasing goods, and the remaining
domestic inventory was about 12,000 tons.

4. Market demand

Downstream enterprises purchase goods on demand, dealers’ stockpiling has weakened, and transaction volume has fallen, but it still maintains a high level.

5. Industry analysis overview

This week, only Sinopec raised the listing price of various types of paraffin by 50 to 100 yuan, aiming to achieve a balance with the price of PetroChina. The rise in paraffin prices has slowed down, and the inventory of major refineries is low, and it is expected to pass the “golden September and silver October” smoothly.

6. Price expectations

The current price of paraffin wax is still 100 yuan/ton lower than the same period last year. After continuous upward adjustments, the current upward trend has weakened. It is expected that the price of paraffin wax will be “slightly rising with stability” between September and October.