20240826~20240901 paraffin market analysis of China

The relevant information this week is as follows:

1. Raw material

Crude oil: During this statistical period, the international crude oil price temporarily rebounded by 2 US dollars, and the Brent crude oil
price was 79.49 US dollars per barrel. Due to the stimulus of the Fed’s interest rate cut last week, this performance is consistent with last week’s analysis. However, 1) the current US crude oil demand is weak; 2) OPEC+ plans to increase production from October, and even the suspension of production in Libya has failed to reduce the bearish expectations of oil prices; 3) Analysis of the impact of the Fed’s interest rate cut has become more rational, and a large-scale interest rate cut is unlikely; Affected by the above factors, Brent oil prices fell sharply by 2 US dollars again on Friday, causing oil prices to continue to fluctuate slightly.

2. Production capacity

Among the major refineries in the country, Maoming and Lanzhou has stopped production and the rest are operating normally.

Period	Factory	Status
20240826—0901	Daqing Pec	Normal
20240826—0901	Daqing Ref & Che	Normal
20240826—0901	Dalian Pec	Normal
20240826—0901	Fushun Pec	Normal
20240826—0901	Lanzhou Pec	Suspended
20240826—0901	Jingmen Pec	Normal
20240826—0901	Gaoqiao Pec	Normal
20240826—0901	Maoming Pec	Suspended
20240826—0901	Jinan Ref & Che	Normal
20240826—0901	Nanyang Pec	Normal
20240826—0901	Panjing Beiran	Normal

 

3. Stock

This week, the price of paraffin products of PetroChina increased by 50 yuan/ton, while that of Sinopec remained unchanged. This week is the end of the month, and all parties have temporarily suspended the purchase of goods, and the remaining domestic inventory has increased slightly to 13,000 tons.

4. Market demand

At the end of the month, traders completed their tasks, the speed of purchasing goods slowed down, downstream companies purchased goods on demand, and the overall transaction volume fell.

5. Industry analysis overview

This week, PetroChina raised the listing price of all types of paraffin by RMB 50. The price increase of paraffin slowed down and the
inventory of major refineries was low. As the Maoming and Lanzhou refineries have not started production yet, Dalian may stop production for maintenance in October. Considering the current paraffin inventory, the price of paraffin is likely to remain stable.

6. Price expectations

At present, the price of paraffin wax has gradually stabilized, and the price of paraffin wax under Sinopec may have room for an increase of 50 to 100 yuan. Overall, if Dalian stops production in October, the paraffin wax market will be strongly supported, and the expected price trend is “stable with possible increase”.