20240902~20240908 paraffin market analysis of China

The relevant information this week is as follows:

1. Raw material

Crude oil: During this statistical period, the international crude oil price fell by another $4, with the average price of Brent crude oil
at $75.09 per barrel. Affected by the economic data of the United States and China, the market generally believes that future demand will continue to weaken, causing the price to directly break through the previous support level of $75 this week, and the downward trend is still continuing. If there are no major events such as the Middle East War in the future, the oil price will continue to fall to $70. OPEC+ has urgently announced on September 5 that the resource production reduction policy will be extended to the end of November.

2. Production capacity

Among the major refineries in the country, Maoming and Lanzhou has stopped production and the rest are operating normally. 

Period	Factory	Status
20240902—0908	Daqing Pec	Normal
20240902—0908	Daqing Ref & Che	Normal
20240902—0908	Dalian Pec	Normal
20240902—0908	Fushun Pec	Normal
20240902—0908	Lanzhou Pec	Suspended
20240902—0908	Jingmen Pec	Normal
20240902—0908	Gaoqiao Pec	Normal
20240902—0908	Maoming Pec	Suspended
20240902—0908	Jinan Ref & Che	Normal
20240902—0908	Nanyang Pec	Normal
20240902—0908	Panjing Beiran	Normal

 

3. Stock

This week, the prices of paraffin products of PetroChina and Sinopec both increased by RMB 50/ton. At the beginning
of the month traders actively stocked up, and the remaining domestic inventory decreased slightly to 12,000 tons.

4. Market demand

Downstream companies purchase goods on demand. Based on past experience, export demand is relatively high in September
and October.

5. Industry analysis overview

This week, the listing price of all types of paraffin wax of PetroChina and Sinopec increased by 50 yuan, and the inventory of major
refineries was low. As the Maoming and Lanzhou refineries have not started production yet, Dalian may stop production for maintenance in October, and the price of paraffin wax is likely to remain stable.

6. Price expectations

Currently, the price of paraffin wax has gradually stabilized. Although the demand has weakened, if Dalian stops production in October, the paraffin wax market will be strongly supported and the price is expected to remain “mainly stable.”