20240909~20240915 paraffin market analysis of China

The relevant information this week is as follows:

1. Raw material

Crude oil: During this statistical period, the international crude oil price fell by another $4. Brent crude oil barely held the support
line of $70/barrel, with an average price of $70.93/barrel. The main reason was the weakening demand for crude oil due to the economic operation of China and the United States. The summer driving peak in the United States has ended. In addition, China’s crude oil imports have decreased year-on-year, and weak demand has led to a surge in bearish sentiment. Next week, the Federal Reserve
will announce its latest interest rate strategy (the possibility of a rate cut is very high), and Hurricane Francine threatens oil production in the Gulf of Mexico in the United States, so there is hope for a rebound, but the global oversupply of oil still puts pressure on prices.

2. Production capacity

Among the major refineries in the country, Maoming and Lanzhou has stopped production and the rest are operating normally.

Period	Factory	Status
20240909—0915	Daqing Pec	Normal
20240909—0915	Daqing Ref & Che	Normal
20240909—0915	Dalian Pec	Normal
20240909—0915	Fushun Pec	Normal
20240909—0915	Lanzhou Pec	Suspended
20240909—0915	Jingmen Pec	Normal
20240909—0915	Gaoqiao Pec	Normal
20240909—0915	Maoming Pec	Suspended
20240909—0915	Jinan Ref & Che	Normal
20240909—0915	Nanyang Pec	Normal
20240909—0915	Panjing Beiran	Normal

 

3. Stock

This week, PetroChina and Sinopec raised the price of key paraffin products by 50 yuan/ton. Traders were active in purchasing
goods before the Mid-Autumn Festival, and the remaining domestic inventory decreased slightly to 11,000 tons.

4. Market demand

Downstream companies purchase goods on demand. Based on past experience, export demand is relatively high in September
and October.

5. Industry analysis overview

This week, the listing price of most types of paraffin wax in PetroChina and Sinopec increased by 50 yuan, and the inventory of major refineries is relatively low. Since the Maoming and Lanzhou refineries have not started production yet, Dalian may stop production for maintenance in October, and the supply of paraffin wax is limited, but the dealers’ price increase has been reduced, and the price of paraffin wax is likely to gradually stabilize.

6. Price expectations

Currently, the price of paraffin wax has gradually stabilized. Although the demand has weakened, if Dalian stops production in October, the paraffin wax market will be strongly supported and the price is expected to remain “mainly stable.”