20241111~20241117 paraffin market analysis of China 

The relevant information this week is as follows:

 

1. Raw material

Crude oil: During this statistical period, the international crude oil price dropped by about US$2.5, and the average price of Brent crude oil was US$72.48 per barrel. In addition to the background of sluggish demand, the US dollar index soared from 104 to 107 this week, reaching a new high in more than a year, which is also part of the reason for the decline in national oil prices this week. The recent rebound in US inflation expectations is generally believed by the market to be the fundamental reason for the upward trend of the US dollar index, which, in addition to forcing the Federal Reserve to slow down the pace of interest rate cuts, has further accelerated the decline in international oil prices.

2. Production capacity

Among the major production refineries in China, Maoming and Dalian Petrochemical has stopped production, the rest of the refineries are operating normally.

Period	Factory	Status
20241108—1114	Daqing Pec	Normal
20241108—1114	Daqing Ref & Che	Normal
20241108—1114	Dalian Pec	Suspended
20241108—1114	Fushun Pec	Normal
20241108—1114	Lanzhou Pec	Normal
20241108—1114	Jingmen Pec	Normal
20241108—1114	Gaoqiao Pec	Normal
20241108—1114	Maoming Pec	Suspended
20241108—1114	Jinan Ref & Che	Normal
20241108—1114	Nanyang Pec	Normal
20241108—1114	Panjing Beiran	Normal

 

3. Stock

The paraffin market was good this week, and inventories declined rapidly. Currently, the national inventory is about 14,000 tons.

4. Market demand

The paraffin market is good this week, some resources are in short supply, and the market quotations are high.

5. Industry analysis overview

This week, PetroChina once again raised the prices of most of its paraffin products by 100-150 yuan/ton, and adjusted prices twice more during the week. The regions that saw price increases were Daqing and Lanzhou. Sinopec also raised prices of its corresponding products by 50-200 yuan/ton. Currently, the prices of paraffin in the three regions (Daqing, Lanzhou and Jingmen) that saw price cuts during the National Day holiday have all returned to the levels before the adjustment. Based on past experience and current oil price analysis, the upward momentum of paraffin will slow down and may turn downward at the end of the month.

6. Price expectations

The current price of paraffin is relatively high, while the international oil price has a clear downward trend. In the long run, this will most likely cause the price of paraffin to start falling at the end of this month.