The relevant information this week is as follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: During this statistical period, international crude oil prices were basically flat, with the average price of Brent crude oil being US$72.90 per barrel. This week marks the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, and data from the U.S. Energy Administration (EIA) on Wednesday showed that the peak travel season boosted some fuel consumption, but not significantly, reflecting weaker than expected market demand. Therefore, Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase warned that international oil prices may fall to US$60/barrel in 2025.
The news that can affect the rise and fall of oil prices in the short term in the future mainly comes from two points: 1) The results of the
OPEC+ meeting. A meeting originally scheduled for December 1 has been postponed to December 5 and will include decisions on whether to extend the 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary production cut plan, which will be phased out in December. 2) Geopolitical situation. Geopolitical developments could quickly reignite production risks, particularly with oil infrastructure in Iran and Russia at potential risk due to regional tensions.
2. Production capacity
Among the major production refineries in China, Maoming and Dalian Petrochemical has stopped production, the rest of the refineries are operating normally.
|
Period |
Factory |
Status |
|
20241122—1128 |
Daqing Pec |
Normal |
|
20241122—1128 |
Daqing Ref & Che |
|
|
20241122—1128 |
Dalian Pec |
Suspended |
|
20241122—1128 |
Fushun Pec |
Normal |
|
20241122—1128 |
Lanzhou Pec |
Normal |
|
20241122—1128 |
Jingmen Pec |
Normal |
|
20241122—1128 |
Gaoqiao Pec |
Normal |
|
20241122—1128 |
Maoming Pec |
Suspended |
|
20241122—1128 |
Jinan Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20241122—1128 |
Nanyang Pec |
Normal |
|
20241122—1128 |
Panjing Beiran |
Normal |
3. Stock
Paraffin inventories remained unchanged this week, with national inventories currently around 14,000 tons.
4. Market demand
The paraffin market was average this week, mainly driven by customers with routine needs in the downstream industry.
5. Industry analysis overview
The price of paraffin wax remained flat this week, but judging from the quotes of various traders, its profit margin is shrinking. Based on past experience and the current international oil price situation, the price of paraffin wax will remain flat for a period of time and then enter a downward cycle.
6. Price expectations
The price of paraffin is currently high, and the international oil price is showing a clear downward trend, which will most likely cause the price of paraffin to start falling in December.