20241209~202412015 paraffin market analysis of China

The relevant information this week is as follows:

1. Raw material

Crude oil: International crude oil prices fell slightly during this statistical period, with the average price of Brent crude oil at US$72.48 per barrel. However, crude oil prices have been rising this week, up about 3%, the first weekly increase in three weeks. On the
demand side, China’s economic stimulus policy has become the focus of global energy markets this week, with China’s crude oil imports in November up more than 14% year-on-year, the first year-on-year increase in seven months. On the supply side, the EU and the US are considering increasing economic sanctions against Russia and Iran.

However, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly oil market report that despite the extension of voluntary production cuts by OPEC+ members last week, the global oil market will still face oversupply next year. Especially with Trump’s support, US crude oil production will increase further next year.

2. Production capacity

Among the major production refineries in China, Maoming and Dalian Petrochemical has stopped production, the rest of the refineries are operating normally.

Period	Factory	Status
20241206—1212	Daqing Pec	Normal
20241206—1212	Daqing Ref & Che	Normal
20241206—1212	Dalian Pec	Suspended
20241206—1212	Fushun Pec	Normal
20241206—1212	Lanzhou Pec	Normal
20241206—1212	Jingmen Pec	Normal
20241206—1212	Gaoqiao Pec	Normal
20241206—1212	Maoming Pec	Suspended
20241206—1212	Jinan Ref & Che	Normal
20241206—1212	Nanyang Pec	Normal
20241206—1212	Panjing Beiran	Normal

 

3. Stock

The paraffin market has recovered this week, and most traders have started purchasing to complete their sales plans. Currently, the national inventory is about 15,000 tons.

4. Market demand

This week’s paraffin wax market was mainly driven by traders’ purchases, while the performance of downstream customers with rigid demand in the industry was average.

5. Industry analysis overview

The price of paraffin wax remained stable this week. After about a month of “high paraffin wax prices and relatively low oil prices”,
more and more end customers are beginning to wait and see the market, and the downward pressure on paraffin wax prices is increasing.

6. Price expectations

The current price of paraffin is relatively high, and the international oil price is clearly on a downward trend, which will most likely cause the price of paraffin to remain flat for a period of time and then start to fall within this month.