The relevant information this week is as follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: International crude oil prices fell slightly during this statistical period, with the average price of Brent crude oil at US$73.10 per barrel. Although the price of oil has been rising “regularly” this week, the increase is small, so it has little impact on the overall oil price. This may be related to the quiet trading during the Christmas week.
The biggest positive news for the world economy this week is that the Chinese government plans to issue RMB 3 trillion (US$411 billion) of special government bonds next year to revive economic growth. But for now, the strong dollar, excess oil production, and the increasingly stalemate in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine situation are undoubtedly suppressing the upward momentum of international oil prices, which is also the reason why oil prices have fluctuated downward in the past three months.
Among the major production refineries in China, Maoming and Dalian Petrochemical has stopped production, the rest of the refineries are operating normally.
|
Period |
Factory |
Status |
|
20241220—1226 |
Daqing Pec |
Normal |
|
20241220—1226 |
Daqing Ref & Che |
|
|
20241220—1226 |
Dalian Pec |
Closed and Relocating |
|
20241220—1226 |
Fushun Pec |
Normal |
|
20241220—1226 |
Lanzhou Pec |
Normal |
|
20241220—1226 |
Jingmen Pec |
Normal |
|
20241220—1226 |
Gaoqiao Pec |
Normal |
|
20241220—1226 |
Maoming Pec |
Suspended |
|
20241220—1226 |
Jinan Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20241220—1226 |
Nanyang Pec |
Normal |
|
20241220—1226 |
Panjing Beiran |
Normal |
3. Stock
The paraffin market continued to improve this week, with traders and end users purchasing on demand. Currently, the national inventory is about 10,000 tons.
4. Market demand
The paraffin market was good this week. The demand of manufacturers and traders who had been on the sidelines due to the downward trend in paraffin prices was released. In addition, end users were concerned about logistics constraints during the Spring Festival in January next year, so they were actively purchasing.
5. Industry analysis overview
This week, paraffin prices have once again seen an unexpected upward adjustment. On Tuesday (20241224), PetroChina raised the prices of its crude paraffin and semi-refined paraffin models by 50 yuan/ton without any warning. Sinopec did not adjust the prices of its products this week, but from a historical perspective, Sinopec is likely to follow suit, especially for its fully refined paraffin models with obvious advantages.
In addition, it is worth noting that according to the current international oil prices and past experience, paraffin prices should begin to
adjust downward. However, as paraffin production capacity has been compressed this year, paraffin prices are very strong. It is not ruled out that some refineries will stop production for equipment maintenance after New Year’s Day, resulting in paraffin prices continuing to remain the same until the Spring Festival of China.
6. Price expectations
The price of paraffin wax is currently high, and the international oil price is clearly on a downward trend, which will most likely cause the price of paraffin wax to remain flat for a period of time before starting to fall. However, due to the significant reduction in paraffin wax production capacity, it is possible that the price of paraffin wax will remain stable until the Spring Festival of China.