20250210~20250216 paraffin market analysis of China

The relevant information this week is as follows:

1. Raw material

Crude oil: International crude oil prices remained basically flat for this statistical period, and Brent crude oil gradually fell back to the level of US$75 per barrel after a slight increase. For international oil prices, the main good news this week is that global crude oil demand growth exceeded expectations, reaching 103.4 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.4 million barrels per day year-on-year. But on the other hand, Russia and Ukraine have become more positive about peace talks, which may lead to the partial lifting of US sanctions against Russia, thereby increasing global oil supply. Secondly, although Trump’s trade protection policy has been temporarily postponed, it poses a huge threat to global economic development and is likely to lead to a decline in global crude oil demand. Finally, due to Trump’s support for traditional energy, US crude oil production is bound to set a new record. At present, the number of US oil
drilling platforms has increased for three consecutive weeks, and the number of active drilling platforms in the United States has increased by 2 this week, reaching 588.

2. Production capacity

Among the major production refineries in China, Maoming and Dalian Petrochemical has stopped production, the rest of the refineries are operating normally.

Period	Factory	Status
20250207-0213	Daqing Pec	Normal
20250207-0213	Daqing Ref & Che	Normal
20250207-0213	Dalian Pec	Closed and Relocating
20250207-0213	Fushun Pec	Normal
20250207-0213	Lanzhou Pec	Normal
20250207-0213	Jingmen Pec	Normal
20250207-0213	Gaoqiao Pec	Normal
20250207-0213	Maoming Pec	Suspended
20250207-0213	Jinan Ref & Che	Normal
20250207-0213	Nanyang Pec	Normal
20250207-0213	Panjing Beiran	Normal

 

3. Stock

This week, all parties were active in purchasing, and the national inventory has now dropped to 11,000 tons.

4. Market demand

This week, downstream enterprises gradually started to purchase according to their rigid demand. As the price of paraffin wax is likely to rise, all parties are actively purchasing.

5. Industry analysis overview

This week, PetroChina and Sinopec adopted a flexible market strategy and raised the listing price of some products by 30-50 yuan/ton.
According to the currently known maintenance plan of Jinan and Gaoqiao refineries, the purchasing enthusiasm of all parties will be maintained until March, which also means that the paraffin market will remain stable with a slight increase.

6. Price expectations

At present, all parties are actively purchasing, and the inventory of paraffin is low. Judging from the transaction situation, the price of paraffin will remain stable and rise before March. Although the international oil price is relatively low at present, the price trend of paraffin has been out of the oil price trend for several months. “Production reduction” and “low inventory” are the decisive factors affecting the price of paraffin.