20250217~20250223 paraffin market analysis of China

The relevant information this week is as follows:

1. Raw material

Crude oil: Compared with the previous statistical cycle, the international crude oil price in this statistical cycle is basically the same, and the average price of Brent crude oil in this statistical cycle is 75.66 US dollars per barrel. The easing of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is the focus of this week. It seems that the peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine will be signed under the dual
pressure of the United States and Russia at the expense of Ukraine’s territorial and economic interests. This will undoubtedly greatly reduce the difficulty of international crude oil supply, and the “oversupplied” crude oil market will probably bear greater pressure.

2. Production capacity

Among the major production refineries in China, Maoming and Dalian Petrochemical has stopped production, the rest of the refineries are operating normally.

Period

Factory

Status

20250214-0220

Daqing Pec

Normal

20250214-0220

Daqing Ref & Che

Normal

20250214-0220

Dalian Pec

Closed and Relocating

20250214-0220

Fushun Pec

Normal

20250214-0220

Lanzhou Pec

Normal

20250214-0220

Jingmen Pec

Normal

20250214-0220

Gaoqiao Pec

Normal

20250214-0220

Maoming Pec

Suspended

20250214-0220

Jinan Ref & Che

Normal

20250214-0220

Nanyang Pec

Normal

20250214-0220

Panjing Beiran

Normal

 

3. Stock

This week, all parties were active in purchasing, and the national inventory has now dropped to 7,000 tons.

4. Market demand

This week, downstream enterprises gradually started to purchase according to their rigid demand. As the price of paraffin wax is likely to rise, all parties are actively purchasing.

5. Industry analysis overview

This week, PetroChina and Sinopec increased the prices of their various types of paraffin by 60 yuan/ton and 50 yuan/ton respectively, while the inventory further decreased; especially for some popular types, it was difficult to get the goods. It is worth noting that Daqing Petrochemical expects to spend 15 working days to replace the catalyst, which will lead to a decrease in paraffin refining capacity, especially semi-refined paraffin.

6. Price expectations

At present, all parties are actively purchasing, paraffin inventories are low, and there is a high possibility of flexible increases within this month, especially for semi-refined paraffin.

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