20250224~20250302 paraffin market analysis of China

The relevant information this week is as follows:

1. Raw material

Crude oil: Compared with the previous statistical cycle, the international crude oil price plummeted by nearly 2 US dollars per barrel in this statistical cycle, and the average price of Brent crude oil in the cycle was 73.3 US dollars per barrel. Due to the possibility of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, oil prices have been hovering at a low level in the past few weeks and gradually falling.
However, in addition to the above-mentioned geopolitical factors, global economic development has been shrouded in the shadow of Trump’s “trade protection” tariff policy, and the pessimistic sentiment about the global economy is strengthening, and international oil prices have continued to fall.

2. Production capacity

Among the major production refineries in China, Maoming and Dalian Petrochemical has stopped production, the rest of the refineries are operating normally.

Period	Factory	Status
20250221-0227	Daqing Pec	Normal
20250221-0227	Daqing Ref & Che	Normal
20250221-0227	Dalian Pec	Closed and Relocating
20250221-0227	Fushun Pec	Normal
20250221-0227	Lanzhou Pec	Normal
20250221-0227	Jingmen Pec	Normal
20250221-0227	Gaoqiao Pec	Normal
20250221-0227	Maoming Pec	Suspended
20250221-0227	Jinan Ref & Che	Normal
20250221-0227	Nanyang Pec	Normal
20250221-0227	Panjing Beiran	Normal

 

3. Stock

The market conditions this week were average, and the national inventory has risen to 12,000 tons.

4. Market demand

This week is the last week of February. Downstream companies purchase on demand, while most traders have completed their sales tasks, so the demand is average.

5. Industry analysis overview

This week, PetroChina raised the price of most of its semi-refined and fully refined paraffin waxes by RMB 60/ton, while crude paraffin wax remained unchanged, which is consistent with last week’s analysis on “Daqing Refinery’s catalyst replacement”. Sinopec did not raise prices this week, but may follow suit next week.

6. Price expectations

At present, all parties purchase on demand, and the inventory of paraffin is low. Gaoqiao and Jinan will gradually stop production for maintenance from late March. Before that, the price of paraffin is likely to be adjusted upward flexibly.