The relevant information this week is as follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: Compared with the previous statistical cycle, the international crude oil price of this statistical cycle has plummeted again by more than US$2 per barrel, and the average price of Brent crude oil in the cycle is US$70.92 per barrel. On Monday, OPEC+ announced that it plans to gradually expand production from April, with an initial increase of 138,000 barrels per day and an eventual
increase of 2.2 million barrels per day. Considering that the US shale oil production has rebounded to 12.8 million barrels per day and the easing of the situation between Russia and Ukraine, the market’s concerns about oversupply in the second quarter have intensified, and international oil prices have also fallen.
Judging from the current situation, the downward pressure on international oil prices is huge. Reuters technical analysts pointed out that the lower trend line of the wedge shows that Brent crude oil may fall to US$66 per barrel.
Among the major production refineries in China, Maoming and Dalian Petrochemical has stopped production, the rest of the refineries are operating normally.
Period |
Factory |
Status |
20250228-0306 |
Daqing Pec |
Normal |
20250228-0306 |
Daqing Ref & Che |
|
20250228-0306 |
Dalian Pec |
Closed and Relocating |
20250228-0306 |
Fushun Pec |
Normal |
20250228-0306 |
Lanzhou Pec |
Normal |
20250228-0306 |
Jingmen Pec |
Normal |
20250228-0306 |
Gaoqiao Pec |
Normal |
20250228-0306 |
Maoming Pec |
Suspended |
20250228-0306 |
Jinan Ref & Che |
Normal |
20250228-0306 |
Nanyang Pec |
Normal |
20250228-0306 |
Panjing Beiran |
Normal |
3. Stock
The purchasing situation this week was average, and the national inventory has increased to 15,000 tons.
4. Market demand
This week, downstream companies purchased on demand and the overall trading situation was average.
5. Industry analysis overview
This week, Sinopec raised the listing price of all its products by 50 yuan/ton to follow the adjustment of paraffin prices under PetroChina in the previous week. It has been confirmed that Gaoqiao plans to suspend production for maintenance on March 20, Jinan plans to suspend production for maintenance on April 4, and the maintenance period is 2-3 months; Fushun is temporarily scheduled to suspend production for maintenance in August. According to the known maintenance plan, the supply of paraffin will remain
tight this year.
6. Price expectations
At present, the purchases of all parties are relatively stable, and they are basically purchased on demand. It is the traditional peak season before the Qingming Festival. In addition, the production of paraffin has been reduced, and supply is limited, so the possibility of paraffin price falling is small. However, it is not ruled out that the paraffin inventory will surge in the next 1-2 weeks, causing refineries to adopt a market strategy of “flexible price reduction”.