20250310~20250316 paraffin market analysis of China

The relevant information this week is as follows:

1. Raw material

Crude oil: Compared with the previous statistical cycle, the international crude oil price fluctuated in this statistical cycle, falling by nearly 1 US dollar per barrel, and the average price of Brent crude oil in the cycle was 70.01 US dollars per barrel. This week, the G7 clearly supported the ceasefire proposal put forward by US President Trump between Russia and Ukraine, which will undoubtedly further reduce the risk of crude oil supply and put downward pressure on oil prices. In the short term, the strength of the US dollar itself may cause the price of crude oil to fluctuate; in the next 2-3 months, OPEC+ and the United States will increase production significantly, geopolitical risks will be reduced, and the global economy will decline due to the tariff war, which may lead to a decline in crude oil prices.

2. Production capacity

Among the major production refineries in China, Maoming and Dalian Petrochemical has stopped production, the rest of the refineries are operating normally.

Period	Factory	Status
20250307-0313	Daqing Pec	Normal
20250307-0313	Daqing Ref & Che	Normal
20250307-0313	Dalian Pec	Closed and Relocating
20250307-0313	Fushun Pec	Normal
20250307-0313	Lanzhou Pec	Normal
20250307-0313	Jingmen Pec	Normal
20250307-0313	Gaoqiao Pec	Normal
20250307-0313	Maoming Pec	Suspended
20250307-0313	Jinan Ref & Che	Normal
20250307-0313	Nanyang Pec	Normal
20250307-0313	Panjing Beiran	Normal

 

3. Stock

The purchasing situation was good this week, and the national inventory has been reduced to 13,000 tons.

4. Market demand

This week, downstream companies purchased on demand and the overall trading conditions were good.

5. Industry analysis overview

This week, Sinopec raised the listing price of all its products by 50~300 yuan/ton, of which Jingmen Petrochemical increased by 50 yuan/ton, while Gaoqiao and Jinan increased by 100~150 yuan/ton and 200~300 yuan/ton respectively. At present, the market for high-melting-point paraffin wax is in short supply, which may be the basis for Jinan Petrochemical to dare to make such an adjustment. It has been confirmed that Gaoqiao plans to stop production for maintenance on March 20, and Jinan plans to stop production for maintenance on April 4, and the maintenance period is 2-3 months.

PetroChina did not adjust prices this week, but it is very likely to increase prices next week to balance the market pattern.

6. Price expectations

At present, the purchases of all parties are relatively stable, and they are basically purchased on demand. It is the traditional peak season before the Qingming Festival. In addition, the production of paraffin is reduced and the supply is limited, so the possibility of paraffin price falling is small. However, it cannot be ruled out that the paraffin inventory will surge in the next few weeks, causing refineries to adopt a market strategy of “flexible downward adjustment”.