The relevant information this week is as follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: Compared with the previous statistical cycle, the international crude oil price fluctuated at a low level in this statistical cycle, with a small increase of about US$0.5/barrel, and the average price of Brent crude oil in the cycle was US$70.62/barrel. This week’s increase was mainly due to the situation in the Middle East. The US crackdown on the Houthi armed forces and the strengthening
of sanctions on Iran have made the situation in the Middle East tense again. However, based on the previous relationship between international oil prices and geopolitical tensions, the general risk premium is US$5-10/barrel.
It is worth noting that OPEC+ issued a new arrangement on Thursday, requiring seven member countries to further cut oil production to make up for the part that exceeds the agreed production. The reduction will exceed the monthly production increase that the organization plans to implement next month. This shows that OPEC+ is trying to raise oil prices, and Brent oil prices will temporarily stabilize above US$70.
Among the major production refineries in China, Maoming and Dalian Petrochemical has stopped production, the rest of the refineries are operating normally.
|
Period |
Factory |
Status |
|
20250314-0320 |
Daqing Pec |
Normal |
|
20250314-0320 |
Daqing Ref & Che |
|
|
20250314-0320 |
Dalian Pec |
Closed and Relocating |
|
20250314-0320 |
Fushun Pec |
Normal |
|
20250314-0320 |
Lanzhou Pec |
Normal |
|
20250314-0320 |
Jingmen Pec |
Normal |
|
20250314-0320 |
Gaoqiao Pec |
Normal |
|
20250314-0320 |
Maoming Pec |
Suspended |
|
20250314-0320 |
Jinan Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20250314-0320 |
Nanyang Pec |
Normal |
|
20250314-0320 |
Panjing Beiran |
Normal |
3. Stock
The purchasing market was quiet this week, and the national inventory has increased to 18,000 tons.
4. Market demand
Downstream companies purchased less this week and the market was sluggish.
5. Industry analysis overview
As analyzed last week, in order to maintain market balance, PetroChina flexibly raised the prices of most of its paraffin products by 60
yuan/ton this week, with only Fushun raising the price of 62 fully refined liquid wax by 170 yuan. Judging from the market conditions this week, although Gaoqiao and Jinan are about to stop production, all parties have completed the goods reserve, so the market is quiet and the national inventory is increasing rapidly. With the passing of the traditional peak season of Qingming Festival, if the inventory continues to rise, the price of paraffin may usher in a turning point.
6. Price expectations
At present, the purchases of all parties are relatively stable, and they are basically purchased on demand. It is the traditional peak season before the Qingming Festival. In addition, the production of paraffin is reduced and the supply is limited, so the possibility of paraffin price falling is small. However, it cannot be ruled out that the paraffin inventory will surge in the next few weeks,
causing refineries to adopt a market strategy of “flexible downward adjustment”.