The relevant information this week is as follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: Compared with the previous statistical cycle, the international crude oil price in this statistical cycle soared by 2 US dollars per barrel, and the average price of Brent crude oil in this statistical cycle was 72.55 US dollars per barrel. In addition to the risk premium caused by the situation in the Middle East, the reason for this week’s rise is that US President Trump announced on Monday that “a new tariff of 25% on potential buyers of Venezuelan crude oil” would undoubtedly increase the risk of crude oil supply and thus push up oil prices.
2. Production capacity
Among the major production refineries in China, Maoming and Dalian Petrochemical has stopped production, Gaoqiao gradually stops production as planned, and the rest of the refineries are operating normally.
|
Period |
Factory |
Status |
|
20250321-0327 |
Daqing Pec |
Normal |
|
20250321-0327 |
Daqing Ref & Che |
|
|
20250321-0327 |
Dalian Pec |
Closed and Relocating |
|
20250321-0327 |
Fushun Pec |
Normal |
|
20250321-0327 |
Lanzhou Pec |
Normal |
|
20250321-0327 |
Jingmen Pec |
Normal |
|
20250321-0327 |
Gaoqiao Pec |
Reducing production |
|
20250321-0327 |
Maoming Pec |
Suspended |
|
20250321-0327 |
Jinan Ref & Che |
Normal |
|
20250321-0327 |
Nanyang Pec |
Normal |
|
20250321-0327 |
Panjing Beiran |
Normal |
3. Stock
The purchasing market was quiet this week, and the national inventory has increased to 21,000 tons.
4. Market demand
Downstream companies purchased less this
week and the market was sluggish.
5. Industry analysis overview
On Friday this week, PetroChina announced that it would reduce the listing price of most of its paraffin products by 400-500 yuan/ton, with only a few high-melting point models remaining unchanged. As previously analyzed, paraffin prices have reached a turning point amid a sharp increase in inventory and the end of the Qingming Festival peak season.
Since Sinopec did not adjust the listing price this week, it is probably that it will reduce the listing price of paraffin by the same amount next week to balance the market.
6. Price expectations
Sinopec is probably to lower its listing price by 400 to 500 yuan per ton next week, and the paraffin market is likely to enter a downward cycle.