20250407~20250413 paraffin market analysis of China

The relevant information this week is as follows:

1. Raw material

Crude oil: Compared with the previous statistical period, the international crude oil price plummeted by about US$10 per barrel in this statistical period, and the average price of Brent crude oil in the period was US$64.28 per barrel. The initiator of all this was the so-called “reciprocal tariff” implemented by US President Trump. With the release of countermeasures by various countries, the shadow of recession in the global economy caused by tariff barriers has shrouded the world. Although the United States subsequently announced that it would postpone it for some countries for 90 days, due to the current tense economic relations between China and the United States, the recession is only a matter of degree. According to data from the EIA (U.S. Energy Administration), if global manufacturing data is weak, oil prices running below $60 may become the new normal.

2. Production capacity

Among the major production refineries in the country, Maoming, Dalian, Jinan and Gaoqiao Petrochemical have stopped production, while the rest of the refineries are operating normally.

Period	Factory	Status
20250404-0410	Daqing Pec	Normal
20250404-0410	Daqing Ref & Che	Normal
20250404-0410	Dalian Pec	Closed and Relocating
20250404-0410	Fushun Pec	Normal
20250404-0410	Lanzhou Pec	Normal
20250404-0410	Jingmen Pec	Normal
20250404-0410	Gaoqiao Pec	Suspended
20250404-0410	Maoming Pec	Suspended
20250404-0410	Jinan Ref & Che	Suspended
20250404-0410	Nanyang Pec	Normal
20250404-0410	Panjing Beiran	Normal

 

3. Stock

The purchasing market of this week was average, and the national inventory has increased to 26,000 tons.

4. Market demand

Downstream companies purchased less this week, and traders mainly focused on consuming their own inventory.

5. Industry analysis overview

This week, Sinopec continued to adjust the prices of its paraffin products. In addition to the 200-300 yuan/ton price reduction of
Jingmen Petrochemical on Monday, April 7, on Wednesday, April 9, Jingmen and Gaoqiao Petrochemical simultaneously lowered their listing prices by 100-300 yuan/ton. The cumulative reduction was basically the same as the previous 400-500 yuan/ton reduction of PetroChina, but there is still room for flexible reduction.

6. Price expectations

Given the slowdown in inventory increases, a small reduction in paraffin prices is more likely.