The relevant information this week is as follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: Compared with the previous statistical cycle, the international crude oil price rebounded by about US$1 per barrel in this statistical cycle, and the average price of Brent crude oil in the cycle was US$65.62 per barrel. Crude oil prices rose slightly this week. In addition to the bottom-fishing operation caused by the sharp drop last week, the main reasons at the macro level are as follows: 1) The new round of US sanctions on Iran has exacerbated supply concerns; this sanction not only involves the “shadow fleet” related to Iran, but also some of the “teapot refineries” related to China have been restricted. 2) After Trump’s “extreme pressure” tariff policy was announced, some countries are believed to make concessions, which will reduce the risk of a systemic recession in the global economy and improve market sentiment. 3) OPEC determined a new production cut plan on Wednesday.
In the short term, international oil prices may rebound, but the increase will be limited. In the long run, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell made it clear that he would not change the current economic policy in line with the Trump administration’s high tariff policy, which means that the market environment is still weak and the demand for crude oil will not improve significantly.
2. Production capacity
Among the major production refineries in the country, Maoming, Dalian, Jinan and Gaoqiao Petrochemical have stopped production, and the rest of the refineries are operating normally.
|
Period |
Factory |
Status |
|
20250411-0417 |
Daqing Pec |
Normal |
|
20250411-0417 |
Daqing Ref & Che |
|
|
20250411-0417 |
Dalian Pec |
Closed and Relocating |
|
20250411-0417 |
Fushun Pec |
Normal |
|
20250411-0417 |
Lanzhou Pec |
Normal |
|
20250411-0417 |
Jingmen Pec |
Normal |
|
20250411-0417 |
Gaoqiao Pec |
Suspended |
|
20250411-0417 |
Maoming Pec |
Suspended |
|
20250411-0417 |
Jinan Ref & Che |
Suspended |
|
20250411-0417 |
Nanyang Pec |
Normal |
|
20250411-0417 |
Panjing Beiran |
Normal |
3. Stock
The market conditions were poor this week, and national inventories have increased to 30,000 tons.
4. Market demand
Downstream companies purchased less this week, and traders mainly focused on consuming their own inventory and did not
dare to stockpile goods.
5. Industry analysis overview
Paraffin prices remained stable this week. Due to the large paraffin production of PetroChina’s related refineries (mainly in Daqing and
Fushun), paraffin inventories have increased significantly, which has put PetroChina’s paraffin products under great downward pressure. Currently, PetroChina’s traders have to further cut profits to complete the monthly sales task.
6. Price expectations
There is a serious wait-and-see sentiment in the paraffin market, and there is a high possibility of flexible downward adjustments.