20250421~20250427 paraffin market analysis of China

The relevant information this week is as follows:

1. Raw material

Crude oil: Compared with the previous statistical cycle, the international crude oil price rose by about US$1 per barrel in this statistical cycle, and the average price of Brent crude oil in the cycle was US$66.59 per barrel. Crude oil prices fluctuated narrowly this week, and the market is gradually recovering after experiencing the shock of “systemic global economic recession”. However, there has been no obvious improvement in the demand side, and OPEC’s newly determined production cut plan is facing challenges due to the “unexpected” increase in production in some countries (the plan to reduce production by 378,000 barrels in May, but the actual increase will be 411,000 barrels; the June plan will be determined on May 5).

Reuters technical analysts pointed out that the fluctuation range of Brent crude oil is between US$66.15 and US$67.13 per barrel, and
breaking through this level may indicate future trends.

2. Production capacity

Among the major production refineries in the country, Maoming, Dalian, Jinan and Gaoqiao Petrochemical have stopped production, while the rest of the refineries are operating normally.

Period	Factory	Status
20250418-0424	Daqing Pec	Normal
20250418-0424	Daqing Ref & Che	Normal
20250418-0424	Dalian Pec	Closed and Relocating
20250418-0424	Fushun Pec	Normal
20250418-0424	Lanzhou Pec	Normal
20250418-0424	Jingmen Pec	Normal
20250418-0424	Gaoqiao Pec	Suspended
20250418-0424	Maoming Pec	Suspended
20250418-0424	Jinan Ref & Che	Suspended
20250418-0424	Nanyang Pec	Normal
20250418-0424	Panjing Beiran	Normal

 

3. Stock

The market conditions were poor this week, and national inventories have increased to 31,000 tons.

4. Market demand

Downstream companies purchased less this week, and traders mainly focused on consuming their own inventory and did not
dare to stockpile goods.

5. Industry analysis overview

The price of paraffin wax remained unchanged this week and did not fall further, but according to the inventory and actual transaction
situation, the downward pressure on the price of paraffin wax is relatively large. In order to complete the monthly sales task, paraffin wax dealers are almost implementing “zero profit” sales, and only some special waxes, such as microcrystalline wax, can maintain a small profit.

6. Price expectations

The paraffin market is in a serious wait-and-see mood, and the downward trend is more obvious, so there is a greater possibility of flexible downward adjustments.