The relevant information this week is as follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: Compared with the previous statistical cycle, the international crude oil price in this statistical cycle has fallen by more than 2 US dollars per barrel again, and the average price of Brent crude oil in this statistical cycle is 64.45 US dollars per barrel. The main reason for the sharp drop in crude oil prices this week is that in addition to the market’s dual concerns about the macroeconomic
outlook and energy demand, the direct reason is that OPEC+ issued a statement on May 3rd that eight oil-producing countries will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June, and the “gradual increase in production” may be suspended or reversed, depending on changes in market conditions. The change in this key market strategy of OPEC+ is mainly because member countries such as Kazakhstan and Iraq cannot effectively limit the production of multinational oil-producing companies in their countries, and have to choose to give up in exchange for more pragmatic political and economic interests.
OPEC+ originally planned to gradually and steadily lift production cuts within 18 months starting from April, with a monthly increase
of about 137,000 barrels per day. But the latest decision means that the camp of eight countries including Saudi Arabia and Russia will make up nearly half of the production cuts (2.2 million barrels per day) in just three months. Against the backdrop of growing crude oil inventories and possible production increases by OPEC+, oil prices may face continued downward pressure in the short term unless there are clear signals of trade easing or signs of a recovery in demand.
2. Production capacity
Among the major production refineries in the country, Maoming, Dalian, Jinan and Gaoqiao Petrochemical have stopped production, while the rest of the refineries are operating normally.
|
Period |
Factory |
Status |
|
20250425-0501 |
Daqing Pec |
Normal |
|
20250425-0501 |
Daqing Ref & Che |
|
|
20250425-0501 |
Dalian Pec |
Closed and Relocating |
|
20250425-0501 |
Fushun Pec |
Normal |
|
20250425-0501 |
Lanzhou Pec |
Normal |
|
20250425-0501 |
Jingmen Pec |
Normal |
|
20250425-0501 |
Gaoqiao Pec |
Suspended |
|
20250425-0501 |
Maoming Pec |
Suspended |
|
20250425-0501 |
Jinan Ref & Che |
Suspended |
|
20250425-0501 |
Nanyang Pec |
Normal |
|
20250425-0501 |
Panjing Beiran |
Normal |
3. Stock
The market situation this week was average, mainly due to the urgent needs of terminal enterprises, and major traders remained on the sidelines. Currently, the national inventory remains at 31,000 tons.
4. Market demand
Downstream companies purchased less this week, and traders mainly focused on consuming their own inventory and did not dare to stockpile goods.
5. Industry analysis overview
This week, paraffin wax prices plunged by 600-1200 yuan/ton, but the implementation and trading of goods will not start until after the Labor Day holiday, so traders are investigating the market demand after Labor Day. From the current known situation, there is still room for paraffin wax prices to fall; and due to the impact of the Sino-US tariff war, a large number of companies have temporarily slowed down production, so paraffin wax demand will not increase significantly in the short term, especially during the trade
stagnation caused by tariffs.
6. Price expectations
After this major price cut, paraffin wax needs some time to get market feedback, so it is mainly stable. But it is still in a downward cycle overall, and the possibility of further price cuts cannot be ruled out.