The relevant information this week is as follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: Compared with the previous statistical cycle, the international crude oil price in this statistical cycle has dropped by more than 2 US dollars per barrel again, and the average price of Brent crude oil in the cycle is 61.53 US dollars per barrel. After the sharp drop to 55.3 US dollars per barrel on Monday this week, it rose for 3 consecutive days, and the highest price on Thursday had returned
to 60 US dollars per barrel. At present, most analysis agencies have given different explanations for the market performance of oil prices this time. 1) Investigators found that OPEC+’s statement of increasing production only legalized the production of crude oil secretly produced by members in name, and it would not affect the actual production at present, and the risk of oversupply was
relatively small. 2) China and the United States will hold trade consultations in Switzerland next week, and the risk of further deterioration of the world economy has been reduced. 3) Summer is the peak season for fuel demand in various countries, and the market size has temporarily expanded. Although there are different views on the performance of the current crude oil market, for the
long-term trend, most people believe that the current rise in oil prices is more driven by short-term optimism rather than the improvement of fundamentals.
Although the easing of global trade sentiment has brought hope, it has not yet solved the deep-seated contradictions in the trade structure. Therefore, oil prices may fluctuate sharply in the short term, and any geopolitical developments and policy adjustments by oil-producing countries may trigger a chain reaction.
2. Production capacity
Among the major production refineries in the country, Maoming, Dalian, Jinan and Gaoqiao Petrochemical have stopped production, while the rest of the refineries are operating normally.
|
Period |
Factory |
Status |
|
20250502-0508 |
Daqing Pec |
Normal |
|
20250502-0508 |
Daqing Ref & Che |
|
|
20250502-0508 |
Dalian Pec |
Closed and Relocating |
|
20250502-0508 |
Fushun Pec |
Normal |
|
20250502-0508 |
Lanzhou Pec |
Normal |
|
20250502-0508 |
Jingmen Pec |
Normal |
|
20250502-0508 |
Gaoqiao Pec |
Suspended |
|
20250502-0508 |
Maoming Pec |
Suspended |
|
20250502-0508 |
Jinan Ref & Che |
Suspended |
|
20250502-0508 |
Nanyang Pec |
Normal |
|
20250502-0508 |
Panjing Beiran |
Normal |
3. Stock
The market situation this week was average, mainly due to the urgent needs of terminal enterprises, and major dealers remained on the sidelines. Currently, the national inventory remains at 31,000 tons.
4. Market demand
Downstream companies purchased less this week, and traders mainly focused on consuming their own inventory and did not dare to stockpile goods.
5. Industry analysis overview
This week, paraffin prices are the first week to be implemented at the latest listed price. Although the price reduction is considerable, in
terms of actual market performance, most traders and manufacturers adopt a wait-and-see strategy. Daqing’s inventory has slightly decreased, but traders’ profit margins are lower than that of last week.
6. Price expectations
After this major price cut, paraffin wax needs some time to get market feedback, so it is mainly stable. But it is still in a downward cycle overall, and the possibility of further price cuts cannot be ruled out.