The relevant information this week is as follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: Compared with the previous statistical cycle, the international crude oil price in this statistical cycle has risen by about US$3 per barrel, and the average price of Brent crude oil in this statistical cycle is US$65.22 per barrel. It is obvious that the reconciliation between China and the United States on the tariff war has greatly reduced the possibility of economic recession, and with the release
of the negotiation results on May 12, crude oil prices have risen sharply. However, the crude oil market is still in a state of “oversupply”, especially with the recent US-Iran nuclear agreement negotiations. Once Iran gives up some of its nuclear capabilities in exchange for the lifting of US sanctions, oil prices will be under greater downward pressure due to production.
2. Production capacity
Among the major production refineries in the country, Maoming, Dalian, Jinan，Gaoqiao and Lanzhou have stopped production, while the rest of the refineries are operating normally.
|
Period |
Factory |
Status |
|
20250509-0515 |
Daqing Pec |
Normal |
|
20250509-0515 |
Daqing Ref & Che |
|
|
20250509-0515 |
Dalian Pec |
Closed and Relocating |
|
20250509-0515 |
Fushun Pec |
Normal |
|
20250509-0515 |
Lanzhou Pec |
Suspended |
|
20250509-0515 |
Jingmen Pec |
Normal |
|
20250509-0515 |
Gaoqiao Pec |
Suspended |
|
20250509-0515 |
Maoming Pec |
Suspended |
|
20250509-0515 |
Jinan Ref & Che |
Suspended |
|
20250509-0515 |
Nanyang Pec |
Normal |
|
20250509-0515 |
Panjing Beiran |
Normal |
3. Stock
The market situation improved significantly this week, and end users and some traders began to purchase paraffin wax selectively. Currently, the national inventory has dropped to 25,000 tons.
4. Market demand
This week, downstream enterprises actively purchased, and some traders began to stock up to complete sales tasks.
5. Industry analysis overview
With the temporary end of the Sino-US tariff war, the performance of the paraffin market has recovered this week, and the national
inventory has dropped significantly. Gaoqiao and Jinan refineries have also flexibly lowered their listing prices to cooperate with market sales.
Due to the reduction of export pressure, end users began to purchase paraffin wax to complete production, while dealers selectively stocked up to complete monthly sales tasks. At present, the profit margins of traders in the Northeast region have recovered, and they no longer adopt a “zero profit” sales model.
6. Price expectations
With the temporary relief of export pressure, paraffin wax demand has recovered, so paraffin wax prices are mainly stable. However, the overall market is still in a downward cycle, and the possibility of flexible downward adjustment cannot be ruled out.