The relevant information this week is as follows:
1. Raw material
Crude oil: Compared with the previous statistical cycle, the international crude oil price in this statistical cycle is basically flat, and the average price of Brent crude oil in the cycle is US$65.14 per barrel. At present, oil prices are under the influence of multiple factors, mainly including three aspects: 1) The tariff war between the United States and the European Union. US President Trump said
on Friday that he plans to impose a 50% tariff on EU goods from June 1. Investors are worried that high tariffs may weaken global economic growth and thus suppress oil demand. 2) Progress in nuclear negotiations between the United States and Iran. Due to Iran’s current tough attitude, Israel has stated that if the negotiations break down, it may take military action to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities. This undoubtedly poses a great challenge to the supply chain and regional stability. 3) OPEC+ production increase expectations.
OPEC+ will hold a joint meeting next week to discuss production plans for July. At present, it is more likely that daily production will increase by 410,000 barrels in July, which will continue to worsen the oversupply market situation.
In the short term, only the small probability of the breakdown of US-Iran nuclear negotiations and Israel triggering the situation in the
Middle East will support oil prices, so the possibility of oil prices rising is small.
2. Production capacity
Among the major production refineries in the country, Maoming, Dalian, Jinan and Gaoqiao have stopped production, while the rest of the refineries are operating normally.
|
Period |
Factory |
Status |
|
20250516-0522 |
Daqing Pec |
Normal |
|
20250516-0522 |
Daqing Ref & Che |
|
|
20250516-0522 |
Dalian Pec |
Closed and Relocating |
|
20250516-0522 |
Fushun Pec |
Normal |
|
20250516-0522 |
Lanzhou Pec |
Normal |
|
20250516-0522 |
Jingmen Pec |
Normal |
|
20250516-0522 |
Gaoqiao Pec |
Suspended |
|
20250516-0522 |
Maoming Pec |
Suspended |
|
20250516-0522 |
Jinan Ref & Che |
Suspended |
|
20250516-0522 |
Nanyang Pec |
Normal |
|
20250516-0522 |
Panjing Beiran |
Normal |
3. Stock
The market situation improved significantly this week, and end users and some traders began to purchase paraffin wax selectively. Currently, the national inventory has dropped to 20,000 tons.
4. Market demand
This week, downstream enterprises actively purchased, and traders began to stock up to complete sales tasks.
5. Industry analysis overview
The market is returning to normal, and all parties are purchasing as needed. Due to the significant decline in inventory, refineries
have little motivation to continue to lower their listing prices, even though international oil prices remain low and there is great downward pressure.
6. Price expectations
At present, the price of paraffin is mainly stable, but due to the low international oil prices, the possibility of flexible reduction cannot be ruled out