20250602~20250608 paraffin market analysis of China

The relevant information this week is as follows:

1. Raw material

Crude oil: Compared with the previous statistical cycle, the international crude oil price in this statistical cycle rose slightly by about US$1, and the average price of Brent crude oil in the cycle was US$64.87 per barrel. The rise in oil prices mainly came from a wave of market conditions on Monday, which was obviously related to the news that Ukraine launched a large-scale drone attack on Russia over the weekend. In addition, as energy demand will usher in a peak season in the summer, and the recent Canadian wildfires have affected the supply of about 350,000 barrels per day, international oil prices are expected to rise in the short term.

2. Production capacity

Among the major production refineries in the country, Maoming, Dalian and Jinan have stopped production, while the rest of the refineries are operating normally.

Period	Factory	Status
20250530-0605	Daqing Pec	Normal
20250530-0605	Daqing Ref & Che	Normal
20250530-0605	Dalian Pec	Closed and Relocating
20250530-0605	Fushun Pec	Normal
20250530-0605	Lanzhou Pec	Normal
20250530-0605	Jingmen Pec	Normal
20250530-0605	Gaoqiao Pec	Normal
20250530-0605	Maoming Pec	Suspended
20250530-0605	Jinan Ref & Che	Suspended
20250530-0605	Nanyang Pec	Normal
20250530-0605	Panjing Beiran	Normal

3. Stock

The market was booming this week, with both end users and dealers purchasing aggressively, resulting in some models being in short supply. Currently, national inventories have dropped to 13,000 tons.

4. Market demand

As the Sino-US tariff war eases, downstream companies are actively purchasing this week to ensure production.

5. Industry analysis overview

The paraffin market is quite hot this week. First, due to the temporary easing of the Sino-US tariff war, industrial production can proceed normally. Second, with Sinopec and PetroChina announcing price increases for most paraffin products, it is generally believed that paraffin has entered an upward circle. Combined with the previous rumor that the Fushun refinery will stop production for maintenance in August, this wave of rising prices may continue until August.

6. Price expectations

At present, the price of paraffin is mainly stable, and the international oil price has an upward trend in the short term. Combined with the current national paraffin inventory data and its changing trend, the price of paraffin may be flexibly adjusted upward.