20250623~20250629 paraffin market analysis of China

The relevant information this week is as follows:

1. Raw material

Crude oil: Compared with the previous statistical cycle, the international crude oil price plummeted by about US$6 in this statistical cycle, and the average price of Brent crude oil in the cycle was US$69.36 per barrel. Obviously, this round of plunge was mainly affected by the “sudden end” of the war between Israel and Iran, and OPEC+ may continue to increase production in August. The cumulative decline in crude oil prices this week exceeded 12%. However, fundamentally speaking, the conflict between Israel and Iran this time involved the United States, Israel and Iran, and none of the three parties involved achieved their goals. The ceasefire was only a delaying tactic for the three parties, and new conflicts may still break out in the future.

This Thursday and Friday, the exchange was closed for the Independence Day of the United States, so the international oil price did not
fully return to the pre-station level. Next week, the price of Brent crude oil will most likely be repeatedly contested at US$66. Without the influence of geopolitical factors, the international crude oil market has begun to revolve around the global economic form again.

2. Production capacity

Among the major production refineries in the country, Maoming, Dalian and Jinan Petrochemical have stopped production, Lanzhou is producing intermittently, and the rest of the refineries are operating normally.

3. Stock

The market was booming this week, with both end users and dealers purchasing aggressively, resulting in some models being in short supply. Currently, national inventories have dropped to 13,000 tons.

4. Market demand

The paraffin wax market has entered an upward cycle, and downstream companies are actively purchasing.

5. Industry analysis overview

On Monday, Sinopec and PetroChina raised the listing prices of their paraffin products for the fourth consecutive week, and most popular models are in short supply. As Fushun Refinery, the largest paraffin refinery in China, will shut down for maintenance for two months starting August 25, this wave of price increases will most likely continue until at least the end of August. However, as the situation in the Middle East eases, the increase is expected to decrease.

6. Price expectations

At present, the price of paraffin wax is mainly stable with some increase, and the temporary sharp drop in oil prices can only affect the extent of the increase. Next week, the listed price of paraffin wax may continue to rise by 50 yuan/ton, especially for Sinopec.